October 15 marked the 7th anniversary of the signing of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA),which was considered to be the second most important process in the history of Myanmar peace talks after the Panglong Conference.
Leaders from ethnic armed groups (EAOs), the Government and the Army all proclaimed their willingness to resolve ethnic conflicts and war-filled with hatred and bloodshed- and to enter a new period of dialogue instead of armed clashes. Some (but not all EAOs) signed the NCA witnessed by the UN and representativesfrom European Union, China, Japan, Thailand, India and others.
Principles of the NCA
The core principles were based on : to prevent the disintegration of the Union, to maintain the ethnic unity, and to build a Union based on democracy and federalism, with full guarantees of self-determination based on equality and justice in accordance with the spirit of Panglong.
Myanmar authorities themselves hoped the NCA would be a gateway to eding armed conflicts. The EAOs also signed the NCA with the intention of amending the 2008 Constitution and working towards its permanent abolition.
The beginning of the NCA’s journey
The history of NCA can be traced back to the period when U Thein Sein became president after the 2010 election U Thein Sein's government started inviting EAOs to join the peace talks. It took almost four years to negotiate the NCA agreement.
The EAOs that participated in the initial talks for the NCA included KIA, TNLA, MNDAA, AA and ANC, but the negotiations soon reached an impasse for a variety of reasons.
On October 15 of 2015, 8 organizations, Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), Karen National Union (KNU), Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), KNU/KNLA Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC), All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF), Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLO), Arakan Liberation Party (ALP) and Chin National Front (CNF), were the first to sign the NCA.
On February 13 2016 when the NLD government was in power, New Mon State Party (NMSP) and Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) added their signatures bringing the total number of NCA-signed EAOs to 10.
The NCA is now 7 years old. During this period the NCA met four times under the auspices of the Union Peace Conference (aka) 21st Century Panglong.
Findings from the Union Peace Conference
The Myanmar Military, the NCA-signed EAOs and the Government were able to hold the Union Peace Conference for the first time in August 2016 in accordance with the peace framework established by NCA. The event was attended by NCA-signed EAO leaders, as well as leaders from some EAOs that have not yet signed the NCA and gave speeches.
At this first meeting of the 21st Century Panglong, various organizations discussed more than 70 papers submitted to the Federal Union Government. However these papers were archived only for the record without any agreements being reached.
In May 2017 meetings of the second 21st Century Panglong were held again. This time 37 agreements were successfully negotiated.
In July 2018, Union Agreement Treaty’s Part 1 and 2 contained a total of 51 agreements, and 14 new ones were negotiated in the third 21st Century Panglong.
The Union Agreement Treaty was approved by the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (Assembly of the Union).Those 51 agreements can be divided into 16 in political aspects,12 in economy aspects, 11 in social aspects, and 12 in land and environmental aspects.
On August 21 of 2020, the fourth 21st Century Panglong was organized. On the last day of the meeting, the Union Agreement Treaty Part 3 was signed. According to the treaty, stakeholders were able to agree on the implementing processes of the consensus beyond 2020.
In the 21st century Panglong, which was considered as the road map of NCA, 3 Parts of the Union Agreement Treaty were signed, and a total of 71 agreements were reached.
However, particularly important propositions for the hopes of advancing the peace process, such as the policies of division of power, deployment of troops, State-by-State constitutional approvals and the devolution of authority over the management of natural resources, were not included at all in these agreements.
Points to note- Part 3 of the NCA's Union Agreement Treaty extended provisions for dealing with the armed movements
According to Part 3 of the treaty, stakeholders agreed to deploy troops without confronting each other, to reduce tension among the armed organizations, and to use field communication and other methods.
Chapter 3(a) of the treaty stated that territorial expansions, army movements, patrolling, military expansions, planting mines, violent actions, vandalizing and launching offensives must not take place within the cease-fire areas.
In addition, the treaty also stipulated the two sides to negotiate and reach an agreement first: if the members of a certain armed group need to travel armed within the territory controlled by another organisation It also called on stakeholders to uphold the commitments that have been collectively agreed upon, to be responsible in an open and transparent manner, and to continue to implement the agreements in the contract.
How the NCA's journey veered off course
Long before the coup, the Myanmar’s military began to expand its areas of control, increasing its military strength, arresting NCA-signed EAOs’ members and civilians, with prosecutions under Article (17/1-2). They also sued the anti-war activists and youth leaders under various other charges. Although the State and EAO leaders signed the NCA before the international community, some agreements have been violated due to the bilateral relations, military expansion, and the absence of effective independent monitoring.
On the other hand, some NCA-signed EAOs in response to the Tatamadaw’s military expansion during the cease-fire period engaged in recruiting, reinforcing their armed forces, and collecting taxes from the local public. In Papun, Karen State an area controlled by NCA-signed KNU, fighting resume d because of a unilateral drive by the military to build a controversial road under the pretext of “regional development” without any consultation with the EAO and the local Karen community.
In summary, various commitments in the NCA agreement had been violated by both sides.
Loss of confidence in the NCA process since the Coup- The military coup has dealt a devastating blow to some of the provisions of the NCA.
The Government, Hluttaw (Parliament), the Army, political parties and EAOs were stipulated to be involved in NCA’s political discussions, but that parliament has been dissolved by the Military Junta that seized power, and so there is no more Hluttaw to ratify the NCA discussions. Most ethnic states are convulsed in war, as a result of the peaceful anti-coup mass protests being ruthlessly suppressed. Many formerly peaceful protestors have been driven to take up arms in self-defense,leading to the formation of PDFs and more recruits joining the EAOs fighting the Junta.
NCA agreements appeared to have been rendered redundant and swept aside by the 2021 coup. Among the EAO signatories the KNU and the CNF, are engaged in fierce fighting with the military. The Tatmadaw has expanded its bombing of civilian villages. There has been a massive loss of confidence in the NCA.
Now the question is after the coup "Does NCA still exist?" Is the whole process of NCA implementation at a standstill?
Currently, NCA is like a bedridden patient with a severe stroke - not yet dead- but completely unable to move.Large-scale armed conflicts are emerging throughout Myanmar. People are suffering dire situations.
After the coup, the NCA-signed EAOs, individually and collectively condemned the Myanmar Military, reflecting the diminishing role of the NCA..
When the Military started carrying out violent crackdowns on the people protesting against the coup, the Bama people, who had only heard of civil war in the past, began to take up arms themselves for the first time.
Impact of political crises on NCA
More than a year and a half after the coup, fierce battles are taking place across Myanmar almost every day. KIA in Kachin State, KNU in Karen and Mon States, KNPP in Karenni State, CNF and CDF joint forces in Chin State, MNDAA and TNLA in Shan State, and AA in Rakhine state, are all fighting against the coup regime aka the Military Council.
Furthermore, intense fighting between the local People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and the Military Council troops intensified in Sagaing, Magway, Bago, Mandalay and other Bama-majority Regions, those used to be peaceful areas (White zones) in the past.
Since the political goals of each EAO and the revolutionary forces are different, it is almost impossible to continue to any Myanmar peace process within the previous NCA framework.The prime objectives: toppling the military dictatorship, drafting a new peoples constitution, and the policy of creating a true federal union, are widely viewed by the anti-coup movement as the basic framework for ending the war.
Meanwhile , the Military Council continues to attempt to resuscitate the NCA and solicits the remaining EAOs within the NCA framework to hold talks on the basis of the military-drafted 2008 constitution.
It was reported that EAO leaders present at the March 11 meeting of the Peace Process Steering Team (PPST), told Myanmar Now that the NCA signatories were discussing ways to prevent the ruling junta from shooting demonstrators and civilians. However other EAOs who have denounced the Military Council, as an illegal regime with no mandate from the people have declare, there is absolutely no reason to meet with the Military Council.
Where is the peace?
Myanmar gained independence in 1948. In practice the Burmese people have never been able to enjoy the essence of freedom and peace, and are still struggling in the quagmire of war and conflicts.
Especially in ethnic areas, the development of social and employment rights has been delayed, and the loss of human resources has led to serious difficulties too.
Overall, disagreements and deterioration in bilateral relations reappeared during the interim period after the NCA was signed, pulling Myanmar back into wars and conflicts again.
All these horrible situations were related to the failures to implement the processes in the NCA road map, and the violations and neglect of the agreements. The Peace Process Steering Team (PPST) of NCA-EAOs also announced on October 14 that people were suffering due to the failures to implement the original NCA procedures and agreements.
Seven EAOs are maintaining a relationship with the Military Council and attended the 7 th anniversary.But these EAOs - The RCSS, DKBA, KNU/KNLA-PC, PNLO, NMSP, ALP, and LDU have mostly the smaller armed groups (except for the Shan RSSF), and play little part in the ongoing war.The major NCA -Ethnic armies among the NCA-signed EAOs are: KNU, ABSDF and CNF who are all key players in the revolution. Not surprisingly , they did not attend the 7 th anniversary military-organised celebrations in the capital.
The coup leader Min Aung Hlaing also reiterated he will continue to firmly “ the NCA and the 2008 Constitution.” That is a message that clearly kills one of the prime demands of EAO concerning the drafting of a new federal union. It is ironic that the Military Junta celebrated the 7 th peace anniversary with a lavish ceremony in Napyidaw, at a time when millions of Myanmar citizens are deliberately starved by food blockades, stripped of shelter by military offensives and suffering from brutal aerial bombardment of civilian villages.
edited TF
