Sai Wansai — As expected the government refused to invite Arakan Army (AA) to the Union Peace Conference -21st  Century Panglong, which will take place in Naypyitaw from 19 to 21 of this month.

The conference has been postponed several times for more than a year because of the government’s heavy-handedness and unrealistic demands on the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), such as swapping secession rights in exchange for the allowance of ethnic state constitution drafting for all ethnic states. Other than that the repeated government troops offensives against the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), a nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA)-signatory, including expanding its presence through road-building projects by the Tatmadaw or Burma army in Karen National Union (KNU) controlled areas, also a NCA-signatory.

On top of that the covid-19 pandemic also delayed the conference, although the signatory EAOs and the government wanted to make it happen during the first four months of the year.

The Union Peace Conference was held in August 2016, May 2017 and July 2018, respectively. And this time around, the participant numbers will be reduced due to covid-19 pandemic.

Accordingly, the number of the delegates will be reduced to 230, one-third of total 700 attendees,  Zaw Htay, spokesperson of President’s Office said.

The reason for rejection of AA is because it is labeled as a terrorist organization by the government, which was pushed by the Tatmadaw and approved by the National League for Democracy-led government. But at one time or another, the government has always labeled many of the EAOs as being terrorists according to its wits and whims. It has more meaning on the given political situation of the day and the pros and cons from the government’s calculation point of view for its own political benefit and not based on accepted criteria or anything in that manner. If a criteria of terrorism will be applied according to accepted international norms, the government’s army the Tatmadaw will be a bona fide terrorist organization. One only needs to ask the International Criminal Court (ICC), International Court of Justice (ICJ), where the cases against Myanmar are in process  and  of course, the UN’s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM), which  is now in full swing to investigate the Tatmadaw’s gross human rights violations and intent genocide undertakings.

“We will invite seven non-NCA-signatory groups. But some groups have limitation and we won’t be able to invite such organizations. We will invite seven non-signatory groups. We invited two each from the signatory groups. Similarly, the non-signatory groups two top leaders will be invited. They won’t be allowed to send in replacement on their behalves. The top leaders should attend personally,” said Zaw Htay in his latest press conference.

This means, the Northern Alliance – Burma (NA-B) members Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and AA won’t attend.

And as Zaw Htay said that only two top leaders of the EAOs will be allowed to attend and cannot be replaced, there is little likelihood that the United Wa State Army (UWSA) will attend. Consequently, the whole Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) headquartered in Panghsang which has seven members, made up of NA-B plus UWSA, Mongla or National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) and Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), won’t attend.

Thus, the government’s invitation is not serious and one would even say inviting for the sake of inviting. In short, it either has no real intention or just doing it to drive a wedge between the NA-B, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, and the FPNCC, using AA as odd man out and game spoiler or trouble maker. Or perhaps making a show of big brother largesse, indicating that it is only being kind and considerate but doesn’t really need to do it for the non-signatory EAOs..

It could also be just to stoke the Tatmadaw’s trampled and hurt ego, which boasted that the AA will be annihilated in no time. But as the military theater unfolds, the Tatmadaw is losing ground militarily and politically, as the Arakan people flocks to swell the AA ranks.

To make it worse, instead of accommodation the self-determination rights of the Arakan people, the Tatmadaw committed gross human rights violations, mass detention and questioning, torture and death in custody, committing rapes, random shooting at civilian targets and on and on, which in turn created nearly 200,000 or more internally displaced persons. One could only imagine how much hatred will be heaped on what the Arakanese people see as Burmese occupation troops.

The NCA-based peace process is going nowhere and the government lack of vision to resolve the political problem makes it even worse. The latest unserious and not well thought out invitation is the case in point.

Maybe the Union Peace Conference should be called a “Taungbyone Nat Pwe” where  largest spirit festivals are conducted around the full moon of August at a location about 15 km north of  Mandalay. It is a sort of carnival-like gathering, performed mostly often by transvestites. Perhaps the Burmese nats, or spirits, will be able to help empower the peace process which is in stagnation and losing luster with each passing day.