According to the current political landscape, no one party will win a landslide victory in the 2020 General Elections, said ethnic parties.
The ethnic parties are confident that their candidates will secure more parliamentary seats and are preparing for a scenario that will make the formation of a coalition government a viable option.
U Kwan Gaung Aung Kham, Vice-Chair of the Kachin State People's Party (KSPP) said: “The one thing that is sure--the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) has no chance to win a landslide victory in 2020. That is why the NLD will find it difficult to form the government. This will surely lead to the formation of a coalition government. After the 2020 election, will it be a coalition government or a united government?”
Sai Kyaw Nyunt, Joint Secretary-1 of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) said: “A party can form the government only when it secures more than 50 percent of seats. If the party wins less than 50 percent of seats, it will be necessary to cooperate with the ethnic parties to form a government and a coalition is expected to emerge.”
The emergence of a coalition government composed of several parties will deliver more benefits to the country, than the government-controlled by a single big party, he added.
U Maung Maung Soe, a political analyst said: “My assessment is the ethnic parties are becoming strong in seven states. But in the case of Arakan State we need to monitor whether the election will take place there or not. According to current information, the NLD remains strong in Kayin State. I think ethnic parties are likely to be strong in the remaining five states. The role of ethnic parties in parliament will be big if ethnic parties are strong. Ethnic parties will play an important role in forming a government.”
Youths from ethnic parties based in Kachin State held a meeting at the KSPP (headquarters) in Myitkyina Township in Kachin State from July 29 to 30, to formulate an election-winning strategy on the formation of a coalition government.
Regarding the aim of drawing up a strategy for winning the 2020 Election, Ko Naw Khone, youth affairs in-charge from the KSPP said, “No party can form a government without ethnic parties. I would like to give a message so as to let big parties know the fact that its winning total will not exceed 50 percent.”
Those involved in the election-winning strategy are from the Kachin State People's Party (KSPP), the Mon Unity Party (MUP), the Kayah State Democracy Party (KySDP), the Chin National League for Democracy (CNLD) and the Karen National Democratic Party (KNDP). In the previous election, they supported the NLD. Now they have decided to support the relevant ethnic parties as the NLD turns a blind eye to ethnic affairs and issues after becoming a government.
Khu Gyo Zet, a youth representative from the KySDP who attended the discussion said: “We exchanged strategies and views at the discussion. We can effectively apply these different views for our states. We can form an alliance and we can expect the coalition if the ethnic parties win the victory.”
Apart from the KySDP from Kayah State, all the other parties have carried out mergers with smaller parties in tune with the wishes of the voters.
The ethnic parties plan to step up their efforts for the 2008 charter amendment, peace and building a federal union and reconciliation if they can form a coalition government beyond the 2020 General Election as expected.
To sum up, we will surely face a more intense competition between the ethnic parties and the big parties due to the ethnic parties’ strategic approaches to the 2020 General Election, a merger of ethnic parties and the cooperation between ethnic parties in respective states. The upcoming election will provide an answer as to whether the ethnic parties’ dream of forming a coalition government comes true or not.
