Banyar Aung — “There is no way to form a government for ethnic minorities in this country.”

Author, Kyaw Win, says under the current constitution, Burmese nationalism still governs ethnic nationalities.

“Only Burmese nationalism can form a government. Therefore, there is no position for ethnic nationalities to form a government. I think we need to reform the system, ” Kyaw Win, an expert on political literature, said in a recent television interview..

Ethnic Issues

The 2008 Constitution is seen as an obstacle for the implementation of a democratic federal system. This is largely due to the guaranteed right of  25 percent military representation in parliament.

Although there is interest in amending the Constitution, there is not yet an agreement amongst the Tatmadaw, political parties or ethnic leaders on just how to make mutually agreeable changes.

A Tatmadaw representative called for amendments to Article 261 of the Constitution, which allows the State and Regional Chief Ministers to  directly elect  the president, but the NLD representative rejected the proposal.

“We are an ethnic party. We can lead the ethnic nationalities and compete in the states. If the ethnic parties win a whole country, they cannot form a government but the NLD can do that and we can seize the right of our ethnic nationalities. Our goal is to become an all-ethnic League for Democracy.” Dr. Zaw Myint Maung, Vice Chairman of the NLD, said in an interview with news agency Mizzima.

Some ethnic leaders have interpreted Dr. Zaw Myint Maung’s comment, as a sign the NLD is concerned about declining ethnic support for their party.

Other examples of discord between the NLD and ethnic communities include the forced renaming of the Bilukyun Bridge in Mon State, which disregarded the wishes of the Mon people by insisting on naming the bridge after General Aung San.  Similarly, the placement of a statue of the General’s  horse in Kayah State, has become an ethnic issue that is reflected in the current 2020 election.

The daughter of Brigadier General Kyaw Zaw, a member of the Thirty Comrades told Mizzima that ” Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said that their party is not a Burmese party. They seem to think that if there is democracy, racial and ethnic issues will be resolved. No, it is not. Ethnic issues must be considered as ethnic issues. When it comes to ethnic groups, we have to be very careful and very serious about how they feel about their feelings and their feelings about the Burmese.”

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese researcher and member of the Communist Party of Burmese, points out that it is wrong for the National League for Democracy (NLD) to assume that once the country has achieved democracy, ethnic issues will be resolved.

Former members of the Burmese Communist Party, Sayar Kyaw Win and author Maung Maung Soe, have also argued against the idea that complex ethnic tensions can be resolved automatically if class problems are solved.

2020 Election

There are a total of 664 seats in the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw. Out of 498 elected representatives, 207 are for State representatives and 166 are reserved for the Tatmadaw.

The NLD, which won a landslide victory in the 2015 election with 390 members, also won 58 percent of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw and was able to form the government.

At the time the NLD government was formed with the full support of ethnic groups and Democrats, but that situation is changing in the 2020 election.

U Ngai Sark, Chairman of the Chin National League for Democracy (CNLD) predicts, that, “in the upcoming 2020 election, ethnic parties will win at least 160 to 200 seats, even if they do not win the full 207 seats. In addition to  the NLD party, is the USDP party, Thura Shwe Mann [UBP party] and Daw Thet Thet Khaing [PPP] parties  which are [running candidates for] 291 seats in seven divisions. It will be very difficult for the NLD to get more than 200 seats, because there will be so many parties competing.”

Other political commentators agree. Maung Maung Soe, Myanmar Political Analyst said, “Overall, if ethnic parties win more votes in ethnic areas, the question is whether the NLD will win more than 50 percent in the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw. In the last election in 2015, the NLD won 58 percent in the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw. If they [NLD] lose below 50 percent in these ethnic areas, and have to form a coalition government with the ethnic groups, we will have to wait and see what the outcome will be.”

If the ethnic parties succeed to some extent, a coalition government could emerge, and the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw could amend Article 261 to allow the formation of a government of the winning ethnic parties at the State level, and to appoint the State Chief Minister.

However, there has been some debate if the election will be held as scheduled, due to rising numbers of Covid-19 infections across the country, lockdowns and challenges for election campaigning.

In addition, there are signs of growing instability in some regions of the country.

At present, there is no right to campaign in all Rakhine areas as a ‘Stay Home’ order has been declared.

Prospects for Peace

The current peace process is indirectly linked to the 2020 elections. Political analysts are predicting a coalition government will be formed. Some suggest that prospects for peace will be better if a coalition government with strong ethnic party representation emerges.

Nai Hong Sar, Chair of New Mon State Party (NMSP) said, “The most important thing is how to build a federal union. How to deploy troops has not yet been discussed. The implementation is not very satisfactory yet, and if implemented, it could confuse the views of the ethnic armed groups that are not yet part of the NCA, with the remaining issues that need to be addressed.”

Myanmar’s long awaited peace process has not been able to move forward, as eight powerful ethnic armed groups have not yet  signed onto the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).

The Chair of the NMSP, which has signed a nationwide ceasefire, suggested this.

“There were agreements during the NCA negotiations. The 21st Century Panglong Conference will be discussed and decided by the Hluttaw. According to those agreements, there are agreements to amend the constitution. We believe that the constitution must be amended at the 21st Century Panglong Conference. We all must try to make amends.”