As the 2020 election is just around the corner and only a year away every political party in Burma is gearing up and preparing to compete to the best of their abilities. While the National League for Democracy (NLD) task is to maintain its absolute majority for the 75% political space (25% MPs are appointed and allotted to the military according to the constitution) up for grab, most other parties no doubt are also projecting to reap as much votes as possible to boost their political standings, which in turn would mean eroding the NLD electoral base and prohibit it from gaining a landslide win like in 2015 election.

Khun Tun OoPhoto by – Naunt Lao Naunt Lao/ Khun Tun Oo

The Ethnic Political Parties (EPPs) since about two years have been preparing to win votes in their respective states by trying to consolidate their positions through fusion of various parties, alliance agreements and so on to counter the NLD election onslaught.

NLD election manifesto

During the 2015 election the NLD was given a blank check as most of the ethnic nationalities were unprepared and the population were also convinced that Aung San Suu Kyi party will be able to deliver accordingly as promised in its election manifesto, campaigning with the slogan “Time for Change”.

Reportedly, the NLD election manifesto 2015 wrote the following to woo the ethnic electorate and as well the rest of the country as follows:

1. Ethnic affairs and internal peace
2. A constitution that ensures that all the people of our country can live together in tranquility and security
3. A system of government that will fairly and justly defend the people
4. The freedom and security to prosper

In the manifesto introduction the NLD chairperson Aung San Suu Kyi wrote: ”When the NLD was first established, its primary goals included: the emergence of a truly democratic government that would guarantee basic human rights and be in line with the wishes of the people; the flourishing of a democratic political system in accordance with the desire of the people of Burma; and the laying down of foundations for a strong and durable union.”

But as all know all of the NLD primary goals of progressing towards democratic governance,  guarantee of basic human rights, and democratic political system according to the people’s aspirations come nowhere near to the laying down of foundations, much less beginning to drive them in the right direction.

Mistreatment of the EPPs

Moreover, the NLD has been consumed by its reconciliation program only with the Tatmadaw and employing appeasement giving portfolios after portfolios to the military bloc, while the EPPs were fully neglected, sidelined and in some cases even adding insult to the injury.

For example, the Arakan National Party (ANP) was denied the chief minister position even though it came out first with the most vote in Arakan state. Another example is that the NLD refused to consider the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) in chief minister election, its ally for decades under the military rule, which had come out second in 2015 Shan state election, where Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) received the most votes and the NLD the third. On top of that the NLD installed a Bamar from its own party as Shan state chief minister, a gesture tantamount to colonial master directive and stamping on sensitivity of the Shan people, which have never happened even during the successive military regime eras.

CRPP revival

As such, the meeting called on April 5 by the 1990 election winning old MPs, the Committee Representing the People’s Parliament (CRPP) members from EPPs, former NLD politicians that were no more with the party for several reasons, and enthusiastic political activists numbering in hundreds, in Ramachristna Hall in Yangong (Rangoon), could be seen as the reaction by the EPPs for the NLD’s inappropriate treatment on them.

NLD was a member of the CRPP, an umbrella political alliance formed together with the EPPs during the military regime era from 1990 up till 2011.

The recent April 5 meeting which was held primarily to form a political party was led by Khun Tun Oo, leader of the SNLD, together with David Hla Myint and Aung Moe Zaw of Democratic Party for a New Society (DPNS), known as Lu Baung Thit Party in Burmese. Other political parties from Kachin, Karen, Arakan, Mon and Chin ethnic groups are also involved, which are members of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA).

Co-founder David Hla Myint, including the ones geared to form the new political party, said that the reason for the establishment of the party and to register with the Union Election Commission (UEC) is due to the fact that they (1990 election winning ethnic MPs) are not satisfied with NLD government performance in a variety of issues.

During the meeting Khun Tun Oo regarding the Myitsone dam said that it is like their innermost and if it isn’t handled in an appropriate way, the 1990 MPs group will not be idle doing nothing with folding hands, but will personally head the protest.

“If the Myitsone project is to resume, our group will not stay idle. We will stand by the people and lead opposition to the project,” said Khun Tun Oo, who is also former lower house MP for Hispaw township in 1990.

Thura Shwe Mann and Ko Ko Gyi

Apart from the disgruntled EPPs, there are two more high profile adversaries or contenders to the NLD in the upcoming 2020 election.

One is the quite recently founded Thura Shwe Mann’s party and the other the 88 generation student leader Ko Ko Gyi’s party.

The UEC member Myint Naing confirmed to Mizzima the news about giving permission for forming of the Union Betterment Party (UBP) led by Thura Shwe Mann on April 4. He has worked closely with state counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and was appointed in February 2015 as head of the Commission for the Assessment of Legal Affairs and Special Issues, until the Commission was dissolved a few months ago by the parliament. He was dispelled from the USDP in August 2015 for being too close to Aung San Suu Kyi. He also was formerly the third in line in the military hierarchy before he entered parliamentary politics, where the first was Gen Than Shwe and the second Gen Maung Aye.

Ko Ko Gyi, one of the legendary 88 generation leaders who protested against the then military junta rule,  also started a party called the People’s Party which was approved by UEC in July last year. He tried to be part of the NLD by applying for permission to join the party but was rejected. Eventually he became disillusioned and form his own party, with many of his generation leaders going different ways, either joining various political parties or participating in civil society organizations.

Outlook and Perspectives

The recent EPPs movement, together with the other CRPP members, to contest the 2020 election, particularly geared to compete in regions (formally divisions) rather than the ethnic states could chip away the NLD absolute majority. The same is also true with the Thura Shwe Mann-led UBP, which may split the vote of USDP and as well the NLD. The Ko Ko Gyi-led People’s Party may or may not make a dent on NLD support electoral base but it is possible that it could also hurt the NLD, one way or the other.

All in all, with heightened mobilization of the EPPs in ethnic states; the to be launched 1990 elected MPs with one third from ethnic nationalities camp and one third from various parties, together with another on third politically active personalities to compete in regions; the Thura Shwe Mann and Ko Ko Gyi parties gearing to enter the election fray in 2020; the NLD is in a very precarious position.

It will be even more so, if she couldn’t handle the Myitsone dam and other mega projects, which are highly controversial and could cost the NLD more votes than expected.

For now, the old and new EPPs’ frustration-oriented actions could be a wake up call, if Suu Kyi and the NLD leadership have the ability to see it through with the lens of “altruism” and “unity in diversity”. Even then, if any remedy is thought out by the NLD regarding the ethnic nationalities, it may be a little too late.