The junta-appointed Election Commission’s announcement on 16 September removing whole or parts of 32 townships from the poll map might not be the last such step, according to sources on the Thai-Burma border.

There are at least five more townships in Shan State East on its watch list: Mongton, Monghsat, Mongyawng, Mongyang and Mongkhark. All of them are either close to or intermixed with Wa or Mongla-controlled areas.

Naypyitaw has been at loggerheads with both Wa and Mongla ceasefire groups since their refusal last year to transform themselves into Border Guard Forces (BGFs) under the Burmese Army.

Of the 55 townships in Shan State, the EC had axed four whole townships and parts of eight other townships last month:

Whole townships

Parts of townships

1. Panghsang (Wa) 1. Hopang (Wa)

2. Napharn (Wa) 2. Mongkhark (Wa)

3. Pangwai (Wa) 3. Mongyang (Wa and Mongla)

4. Mongmai (Wa) 4. Markmang (Wa)

5. Mongla (Mongla)

6. Mongyawng (Mongla)

7. Mongton (Wa)

8. Monghsat (Wa)

The Lahu National Development Party (LNDP) was recently urged by junta officials to step up its election campaign or more townships (either whole or parts) would be removed from the constituency list.

The LNDP will be fielding nine candidates in Shan State East: Seven for State Parliament and two for the lower house in Mongton, Monghsat, Tachilek, Kengtung, Mongpiang and Markmang.

One challenging township for the LNDP appears to be Mongton, opposite Chiangmai’s Chiangdao and Wianghaeng districts:

* Although the Lahu population was previously bigger than or at par with that of the Shans there, it had been offset by the influx of Wa from the north since 1999
* Many Wa elders have expressed support for the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) since no Wa party is contesting for seats in Mongton
* The Lahu vote is also split between the LNDP and Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) each of which is fielding a Lahu candidate

In contrast, the USDP’s candidates appear to be in the lead in the neithbouring Monghsat. “Sai Long (a Shan militia leader who is contesting for a state house seat under the USDP banner) is unbeatable,” said a local Shan businessman. “He enjoys support not only from the Shans but also even from some Lahu areas, because he had always helped out people who were in trouble in the past. The Burmese (junta) is lucky to get hold of him before anyone else.”