China is yet to ignore ceasefire groups based along its southwestern border because they are like the fence of the country. As such she will maintain her friendly relations with both the ruling junta and the ceasefire groups, according to Chinese security officials and border watchers on the Sino-Burma border.

“Till date, our policy on ceasefire groups is unchanged. We will try our utmost to preserve our friendship with both the military junta and the ceasefire groups,” a Chinese officer told SHAN.

“Looking back at several instances that took place in the past between the Burmese Army and China, we can say that the junta has shown itself to be far from being trustworthy,” he said.

The first momentous instance was the incident in 1967, when dozens of Chinese people were killed during the Mao Zedong badge riots.

Similarly, more than 100 ethnic Chinese were massacred by the Burmese Army in the Mongkoe incident that took place in 2000. (On 24 October 2000, a faction of the Mongkoe Defense Army (MDA), a breakaway group of the Kokang, had mutinied. A month later, the mutineers were executed, MDA leader Mong Sala put in jail and the territory occupied by the Burmese Army.)

Again, thousands of Chinese people were harassed by the junta’s military during last year’s fighting in Kokang. (In August 2009, Kokang was attacked and occupied by the Burmese Army and about 200 people were killed in the attack and over 30,000 refugees fled to China.)

Another example was a promotion for Brig-Gen Aung Kyaw Zaw, former commander of Light Infantry Division (LID) 33, which had participated in the Kokang fighting. “He is the one that the Chinese authorities were not fond of as he did many ghastly things to Chinese people. But he was still promoted as the regional commander,” he said. “It means the Burmese Army does not care about our concerns.”

An officer said the military regime took advantage on Beijing’s words out of context referring to the junta owned newspaper ‘The New Light of Myanmar’ report on 12 September that China’s President Hu Jintao had promised that China will not support any group that will create anti-government activities along their shared border. “The junta is just putting these words into our mouths for its own agenda,” he said.

An analyst agreed with the officer’s comment. “Before the United Wa State Army (UWSA) had only five armoured personnel carriers, but now they have more than 10 of them.  Likewise, the number of anti-aircrafts SAM 11 has increased,” he said. “Those things don’t fall from the sky.”

Concerning China’s policy, most people say that Beijing, the central government and Yunnan provisional government’s policies are somewhat different. But to one border watcher, it is the same “that is we are friends to today’s Burma government and tomorrow’s Burma government.”

“The difference is not between central and provincial,” he said, “but between different departments.”

The main difference however is between the law enforcement and national security departments. “The police see the ceasefire groups as problem makers, drug producers and arms dealers who are destabilizing the border,” said an analyst.

Both the security people and analysts see little likelihood of hostilities breaking out during the election period. “Military preparations will continue. The groups will be under siege,” said one. “But if there is a military operation, it will take place either far away from the border or if the target can be swiftly occupied.”