In a somewhat dramatic departure from his usual diplomacy, Surapong Jayanama (pronounced Chaiyanarm), the Thai academic and current advisor to Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya (pronounced Pirom) told an audience at Chiangmai University’s Operational Building yesterday that the anticipated victory for the Burmese junta-backed party (the USDP) in the forthcoming elections might likely be endorsed by the international community.

“In fact, it might be a good exit strategy for the powers concerned,” said Surapong. “They’ll say ‘We’ve done what we could, now it’s time to be back to business as usual,’ ‘Having elections is better than no elections’ and ‘The regime deserves the benefit of the doubt, shouldn’t we allow it the opportunity to prove itself?”

Responding to a question posed by Aung Moe Zaw, leader of the Democratic Party for New Society (DPNS) in exile, Surapong added, “If it [the junta] is able to organize the elections by adopting measures in subtle ways to allay suspicions about the overall fairness, eventually the [international community] will most likely recognize the new government of Myanmar.”

However, he conceded that the said new government would still just be old wine in a new bottle. “The more it changes, the more it will stay the same,” he said.

His statement echoed what a senior Indonesian diplomat said earlier in an interview given to the Asian Times on 26 July; “While we will use every opportunity to push the Myanmar authorities to greater democracy, in the end we will probably end up being a big rubber stamp.”

Surapong, in defence of his prediction said, “This is not hypocrisy. It has to do with national interests, because the post-Cold War world has become an interdependent world. No country, not even the United States, can deal with major problems by itself.”

The regime, provided the international community’s reactions to its election results are good, can then start to address issues, which have been long standing headaches - principally Aung San Suu Kyi and the non-Burman ceasefire armies - without fear of worldwide criticism.

Surapong Jayanama

Surapong, however, warned not all is going to be plain sailing for Burma’s junta. “(The last Soviet Union leader) Mikhail Gorbachev launched his Glasnost and Perestroika campaigns to strengthen the communist system, but, contrary to his expectations, the campaigns went wild ending in the collapse of the Soviet Union,” he said. “Similarly, Burma’s regimes, aiming to extend its rule, may well be sowing the seeds of its own destruction.”

Barely five months remain before the year ends, but Burma’s ruling military junta remains tight-lipped about the date of its promised elections. The October 10 prediction has been dismissed by most news agencies. It also remains to be seen whether the country’s detained democracy icon, Aung San Suu Kyi, will be released in November when her 18 months detention ends.