China may well be backing Naypyitaw, when it comes to democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and the over 2,000 political prisoners in Burma, but it has adopted a tough stance, twice in a week, when the Burmese Army tried to impose itself on one of the former communist armies, according to sources on the Sino-Burma border.
On August 8, it had successfully convinced the Burmese Army, which had entered the Kokang territory “without our permission” to carry out an inspection on a location suspected to have an arms factory. “Due to China’s intervention, the Burmese Army pulled out,” said a local source.
Three days later on August 11, Maj-Gen Aung Than Tut, Commander of the Lashio-based Northeastern Region Command, summoned five officers of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), as the Kokang ceasefire group prefers to call itself, to his headquarters. Two were later despatched to Laogai, the Kokang capital, to persuade its top leader Peng Jiasheng to have an audience with him.
Peng, who had already refused to meet Aung Than Tut on August 8, did not show up. As a result, the situation that had almost returned to
normal on August 9 became tense again, forcing people to flee across the border yet again.
They were however stopped by the Chinese. “We are doing what we can to ease the situation,” a border official was quoted as saying. “Of course, we will not refuse admission if bullets start flying. But in the meanwhile, you should trust us and go back.”
Only Chinese citizens were allowed to cross the border, said a border source.
The remaining three were allowed to return the next day, thus somewhat cooling things. “There isn’t any doubt why the junta backed down,” said a knowledgeable source. “There could even have been a trade-off between Naypyitaw and China: Ditching Suu Kyi in exchange for peace along the border.”
China was the only country which supported Naypyitaw’s decision to continue Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest on August 11.
The situation nevertheless is still worrisome, according to a Thai-Burma watcher. “The release of the Kokang officials did not resolve the issues between the two sides,” he said. “Naypyitaw still wants Kokang and their allies to become border security battalions under the control of the Burmese Army and they keep saying no to it.”
In addition, according to several sources, any conflict with Kokang will certainly lead to a full-scale war with its allies, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA) and the Shan State Army (SSA) “North”, which accounts for a grand total of 45,000 to 50,000 strong well armed opposition.
Naypyitaw has fixed October as the deadline for the ceasefire groups to transform into what it terms as the Border Guard Forces (BGFs).
