The 20-year long ceasefire between the Burmese military junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) almost came to an abrupt end on August 8, when the former demanded to inspect the latter’s alleged firearms factory, according to reports from the Sino-Burma border.

Maj-Gen Aung Than Tut, Commander of the Lashio-based Northeastern Region Command, arrived in Kokang with a 60-member armed force, according to a source. “No, it was a three battalion size force,” said another. “The Kokang were angry, because the Burmese Army could have brought in just their authorized inspectors. They could also have used their units, already deployed in the area. Instead they went in with units from outside Kokang,” he added.

There are five infantry battalions (#125, 127, 128, 129 and 239) and two light infantry battalions (#312 and 322), under the command of the Laogai (also written Laukkaing) Regional Operations Command (MOC), according to the Network for Democracy and Development (NDD), an group in exile, which specializes in collecting military data. Laogai is the capital of Kokang.

Although details are still lacking, the Burmese Army appeared to have agreed to pull out the troops, which had gone in with the regional commander, said both sources.

“The Burmese Army doesn’t appear to be ready to go to war,” said a border watcher. “Otherwise they wouldn’t have backed out, when the Kokang called their bluff,” he said.

According to sources, Kokang has already formed a military alliance with the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA), the Shan State Army (SSA) “North” and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA)’s Shan State North-based 4th Brigade. “There is a sort of ‘all for one and one for all’ arrangement among them,” said a source from the Thai-Burma border.

The only group that appears to be in isolation and vulnerable to any imminent offensive from the Burmese Army is the KIA, based in the far north in Kachin State. The Burmese Army is currently reinforcing its troops around Laiza, the KIA’s main base on the Sino-Burma border, according to the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB)’s, August 5 report.

It is also redeploying its troops around the Wa territory in the north, west and south, apparently to prevent the ceasefire groups from coming to the rescue of one another, in the event of an offensive.

“The Chinese have already told Gen Maung Aye (during his June 15-20 visit) that renewed military conflict along its borders was unacceptable,” said a Shan watcher. “But, even Beijing knows Senior General Than Shwe has a mind of his own. So they are not ready to rest until the October deadline,” he added.

October is the month, Lt-Gen Ye Myint, Naypyitaw’s chief negotiator, had reportedly fixed as the final deadline for the acceptance of its proposal calling on the ceasefire groups to be transformed into Burmese Army-controlled Border Guard Forces.