Ostensibly in anticipation of the ensuing 2010 general elections, the Burma Army has been reinforcing key military regions with fresh units from lower Burma, according to an informed border source.
"We monitored at least six infantry battalions in the Eastern Region Command (Southern Shan State) and four in Triangle Region Command (Eastern Shan State)," he said. "It could either be a precautionary measure to be able to hold the elections without trouble or part of the effort to force ceasefire groups to surrender or both."
According to a study by Ethnic Nationalities Council (ENC), there are seven ceasefire groups in Shan State with a total estimated strength of 33,000; three in Kachin State with a combined strength of 4,000; six in Kayah (Karenni) State, 2,000; five in Karen State, 3,400; and one in Mon State, 3,000.
On the Burma Army side, there were 215 infantry battalions (IB) and 340 light infantry battalions (LIB), all under strength, in September 2006, according to Network for Democracy and Development (NDD), a dissident group that has been monitoring the Tatmadaw (Burma's armed forces) for years.
About 30 per cent of them are reported to be in Shan State.
Another border source has also confirmed the increase in eastern Shan State. "The UWSA (United Wa State Army) at Hwe Aw (24 miles north of the Chiangmai border) was recently ordered to turn over a spot of land for the construction of a command post for a new battalion," he said. "The Wa has asked for adequate compensation in return as they have invested a lot in rubber plantations on both sides of the road."
Unconfirmed reports also say the Kengtung-based Triangle Region Command will be dividing the area under its control into two sectors: one north and east of the Takaw-Mongpiang-Kengtung-Tachilek road and the other south and west of it. "The object is division of responsibilities: one sector command will take care of areas bordering China and Laos while the other takes care of areas bordering northern Thailand," said Col Yawdserk, leader of the non-ceasefire Shan State Army (SSA) South.
There were only 15 infantry battalions in the whole of Burma under British rule, two of them in Shan and Kayah states. It has been recorded by historians as one of the most peaceful periods in the history of Burma, except during World War II.
