“The Burma Army is made up of over 500 infantry battalions. The10 LIDs: 11, 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99 and 101 and 21 Military Operations Commands (MOCs): #1 – #21 constitute the backbone of the military. Except for LIDs 66 and 77, all of those divisions and MOCs are now positioning themselves in ethnic armed group areas. There are few reserve units in the rear,” said the observer.

Except for the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), most of the rest of ethnic armed groups have signed ceasefire with the Myanmar government. Nevertheless, the Burma Army is trying to take hold of an upper hand over ethnic armed groups militarily so it can have a leverage politically at the negotiation table, the observer said.

“In fact, the ceasefire is only at a starting stage. None of the armed groups has signed the final agreement. For a stable agreement, it is required to specify areas for each group. As the demarcation of areas is especially required, the Burma Army is attempting to take hold of larger areas under their control while limiting those of armed groups. This is the only reason that the Burma Army is reinforcing its units in the ethnic armed group areas as many as possible,” to the observer said.

Such troop movements and reinforcements may not be a good sign for building trust and a genuine peace, added U Aung Kyaw Zaw.

By the end of April, KIA and Burma Army have been engaging in fighting on daily basis in Kutkhai Township. The Burma Army has also been increasingly reinforcing its troops in the SSPP/SSA controlled areas in Tangyan and Monghsu Townships