It may sound funny to some, but for others it means a person who lets others deceive one could blame no one but oneself.

Also if one remembers the proverb, it will help remind one that one should take steps not to repeat bitter experiences during the past ceasefire period (1989-2009).

So what happened to the ceasefire movements that had placed their hopes in the so-called National Convention (1993-2007) to restore ethnic and state rights?

Here are some:

    Loss of competent leaders (Zau Mai, Zhao Yilai and Gunyawd, for instance)
    Loss of competent members who left the movement
    Some movements were disarmed and dissolved (PSLA, SSNA and SNPLO, for instance)
    Some other movements and their leaders joined the enemy’s camp (PNO and KDA, for instance)
    The regime sowed discord between groups (SSA and UWSA, for instance)
    Loss of natural resources in the name of development

The regime’s predecessors repeatedly urged ceasefire leaders to discuss political issues in the National Convention and with “the next government”. More than 20 years had passed but nothing was achieved.

Now the new government says its peace roadmap is in 3 phases: ceasefire, development and political dialogue.

The second phase, development, some say, could take as long as 3 years. Which seems to coincide with Burma’s Asean chairmanship in 2014.

During the 3 years, anything can happen.

In fact, the urgent need for the ceasefire movements is the third phase: political dialogue, not a drawn-out development program, which can easily become a trap one may find it hard to get out of.

In the meanwhile, the regime may be gaining international applause for having achieved peace in such a short period.

One interesting news is that the ex-Gen Khin Nyunt who was among those released on 13 January has been appointed paid patron of Zay Kaba Khin Shwe’s NGO: Mya Yeik Nyo Foundation. The NGO is supposed to be focusing on promoting development in the border areas, most of which are under the control of the ethnic movements.

Knowing that his main concern is the freedom of his colleagues from his defunct Military Intelligence Service, who are still in prison, it may not be a surprise if he turns out to be an agent provocateur.

Therefore, if the ceasefire movements are not careful, the vicious circle will return, this time for the last time.

In fact, the regime’s 3 phase road to peace might well end at the second phase.

The blame will then be not on the deceiver but the deceived.

Sai Aung is SHAN’s reporter on the Sino-Burmese border