Like everywhere, in Burma, there are always pros and cons as well as positives and negatives whenever change is attempted. By and large the military rulers made moves first and the opposition has to react. At times the opposition started the move and the regime has to counter it.

When the people of Burma demonstrated in 1988, General Ne Win, who had ruled for 26 years, essentially gave up. But the next two presidents tried to kill and quell the protest.

When the people voted for the National League for Democracy (NLD) in 1990, the junta, in the name of the State Law and Order Restoration Council, had to respond quickly to the legitimate call for a new government and parliament by issuing the historic announcement 1/90, on 27th July, 1990. It called for all elected Parliamentarians to draft a new constitution. However, when the national convention to draw up the constitution was held on 9th January 1993, the elected MPs constituted only 15.24% of those present at the outset, and in the later sessions it was reduced to barely 1.38%.

A dead woman bites not. When Aung San Suu Kyi was gathering larger and larger crowds during her around-the-country tours, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) attempted to kill her on 30th May, 2003. Fortunately, she survived and the world was outraged. The junta had to respond with the announcement of the ‘Roadmap’. The upcoming election is the key to that.

The struggle against the dictatorship has been going on for a long time in Burma. Meanwhile, many people have suffered and many have died. From the NLD more than a hundred elected parliamentarians have died, three of them killed in the prisons and two assassinated outside the country. Meanwhile a number of intellectuals who have advocated democracy collaborated with the regime. One of Aung San Suu Kyi’s assistants turned hostile. Before the upcoming election, a few scholars are visiting abroad to lobby for the junta’s election.

As well, after the unanimous decision was made on 29th March, 2010, to not re-register, some leaders of the NLD left the party and formed the National Democratic Force (NDF), which has fielded 164 candidates in the election. It is more than hearsay that the NDF received funds from the junta’s USDP, which will contest almost all seats.

The regime is not immune. Look at General Ne Win, General Saw Maung, and General Tin Oo- who died shockingly and disgracefully. There are also purged army officers, such as Brigadier Aung Gyi and Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt.

So far, the opposition has kept its top leader alive. Although the party has been stripped of legal status, all NLD members not allowed to run in the election and the constitution rules out a woman as head of state, Aung San Suu Kyi is still regarded as a person whose liberty might bring the regime down. The junta was afraid to hold the election before she was freed. Only when she called for a boycott of the election did the election commission inform her and the country that she had the right to vote. The message to her people is that the people have the right to vote, as well as the right not to vote.

Propaganda machinery, if effectively used, can turn events upside down. The rumor mill also can efficiently mislead and misinform. Now and again military intelligence has printed leaflets about Aung San Suu Kyi to defame her. There have been numerous mischievous articles about her in the state-run newspapers, written under various pseudonyms. Almost all subordinates have been taught falsehoods about Aung San Suu Kyi. A soldier who fled to India after deserting said Aung San Suu Kyi was the woman who made the troubles.

In Burma the grass roots opinion cannot be understood as being correct. Many people are terrified, some of them are hoodwinked, a few of them have been bought and several of them do not have any comment.  

For the junta, it is time to augment the campaign against her as she is about to be released. This indicates that the junta leaders are not confident of succeeding with their efforts to form the new government if Aung San Suu Kyi is free. So her popularity is a hot topic, especially since world leaders, including the UN Secretary General, are calling for her release.

Yes, the NLD has lost members. But, the NLD disagrees that the election is the only way to bring about change in Burma. The NLD believes the people would vote against the military dictatorship in a free and fair vote. After the junta announced the election laws and date, the plan to transform the ethnic armed groups into border guards failed. Then ethnic groups officially declared that Aung San Suu Kyi is the national leader. That is unity hardly ever seen in the history of independent Burma. So, qualitatively, she is on the positive side.

If she is inconsequential and her call for an election boycott seems ineffective, the junta should allow outside election observers to monitor the election process. But, in the second week of November, the world will hear, not witness, the pre-typed winner takes all announcement. Then Aung San Suu Kyi and the people will have to start the next phase of the struggle.

(Dr Tint Swe, a member of the NCGUB -- formed by elected representatives from Burma after the elections of 1990.)