As the Arakan conflict erupted with vengeance between the government security forces in the west on January 4 and is now still ongoing, creating some 4000 to 5000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), inter-ethnic conflict between the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) rages in the east of the country’s northern Shan State, including another one in the southern between the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA) and the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), which have now produced some 1000 new IDPs, fleeing into the United Wa State Army control area.

While the key to resolve the inter-ethnic conflict is not only between the Shan or Tai majority group with the non-Shan sub-ethnic groups like the Palaung or Ta’ang and the Pa-O, the brotherly fight between two Shan armies is the key that has to be resolved first, reasoned Shan patriots and Shan politicians.

In this respect the Committee for Shan State Unity (CSSU) chairman Sai Aik Pao has been trying all along urging the two Shan armies to negotiate and end the hostile armed conflict, at least for the sake of the people.

Strangely enough, the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) and RCSS/SSA are members of the CSSU. It is a loose kind of coalition talk-shop with really no decision-making power vested in its leadership that could influence its alliance members.

The organization includes: Shan State Joint Action Committee (a coalition of Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army, and Shan State Militia Force); Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP); Restoration Council of Shan State/ Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA); Shan Community Based Organizations; Tai Youth Organization; Shan Lawyers Network; New Generation Shan State; Tai National Association Thailand; Eastern Shan State Development and Democratic Party (ESSDDP); and Tai Youth Network (TYN).

Sai Aik Pao, rotational chairperson for CSSU has sent letters both to SSPP and RCSS to settle the differences and seek immediate solution through negotiations, to which the RCSS has already answered its readiness to meet but the SSPP hasn’t answer to the request yet, according to the latest Shan Herald for News report.

“I don’t want the two Shan forces to fight each other. If clashes occur, there will be causalities on both sides, as well as for civilians,” said Sai Aik Pao.

The RCSS/SSA and SSPP/SSA have been fighting in northern Shan state since last November. Consequently, civilians have been killed or injured, and thousands forced to flee from their villages.

In the past, “the clashes weren’t so intense, but now they are,” said the CSSU chairman, and “this is troubling for civilians,” he added.

Background

The SSPP and RCSS are two Shan armies with the former operating in the north of Shan State with its headquarters in central Shan State Wanhai and the latter in the south, with its headquarters Loi Tai Leng close to the Thai border of Mae Hong Son Province.

Following the October 2015 nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) signing of the 8 EAOs, which RCSS was also a party, it moved some 2000 troops to the north where the TNLA and SSPP also operate.

RCSS was accused of making use of the NCA and Tatmadaw or Military backing to move its troops conveniently through government controlled roads. But the RCSS reasoned that the timing is only coincidental that its troops reinforcement to the north happened after the NCA signing, but the training of its new troops, most of whom are northerners, at Loi Tai Leng have been going on for months. Besides, it argued that its troops has been in the north since 2005, with the invitation of the SSPP  to help take away the heat of Tatmadaw offensives against its troops. And most importantly, the RCSS argued that as a Shan army it has all the rights to operate in the whole Shan State.

But the TNLA saw this as an intrusion into its area of influence and attacked the RCSS troops in November 2015 when it was coming up to Namkham area in the north to reinforce its troops. And from that time on the fighting for control of territories has been going on between the TNLA and the RCSS until today.

However, when the SSPP joined the TNLA openly in the fight against the RCSS in November last year, reportedly to route its troops out of the northern Shan State, the battles become intense in Hsipaw, Namtu and Kyaukme townships and so on with both sides employing hundreds of troops. The fight between the SSPP and the RCSS died down a bit for the moment but the on and off clashes would likely continue.

IDPs

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) office recently reported the increase of the IDPs can be attributed to fighting between Shan armed forces in Hsipaw township.

Fighting between RCSS and SSPP near Ton Keng village in Hsipaw township occurred between December 22 to 25 of last year, where over 1,200 people from 10 villages have been displaced in Hsipaw township, according to the UNOCHA report, with some civilians having to flee their homes at least twice in 2018.

IDPs have mainly sought refuge in Buddhist monasteries, supported by monks, community-based groups, aid groups and the government’s disaster management department. But all of the IDPs in Hsipaw township were able to return home by the end of 2018 said the report.

Because of the kind of continuous disruption of their livelihood and human security as whole, Shan civilians have been pushing for RCSS/SSA  and SSPP/SSA leaders to meet as soon as possible to resolve differences and end fighting in Shan State.

According to UNOCHA on 24 December 2018, the Shan IDPs count is 9235 staying in 31 IDP camps or IDP-like camps, in northern Shan State.

The large portion of the IDPs in Shan State is due to the armed conflict between the Tatmadaw and the various EAOs within Shan State. But it is also very clear that a sizable portion of new IDPs that have come into existence is because of the inter-ethnic conflict, as UNOCHA rightly pointed out.

Outlook and perspective

Numerous Shan civil society organizations, Shan Sangha and now the CSSU are urging that the two Shan armies end their armed conflict for the pity sake of the people.

The two armies, which each field more than 10,000 troops, speedy truce is necessary to end the misery of the affected population in Shan State and if this could be achieved, the other conflicts with the TNLA and PNLO could be better worked out to end the inter-ethnic conflict as a whole within Shan State.

If not, the Tatmadaw which is staying out of the conflict might be compelled to come into the conflict scene, reasoning to protect the local population as has already made known by the its commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing not long ago, and that would make the matter worse.

The two Shan armies should now seriously consider the welfare and safety of the people;  for their own correct political standing; and survival as respected organizations working for the people. Finally, it is advisable to stop this senseless armed confrontation, as repeatedly suggested and urged by the CSSU and the people of Shan State.