As the peace negotiation talks floundered, due to the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army) heavy-handedness to the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), the edginess of the latter become more profoundly difficult also with the other player, the ruling National League for Democray (NLD).



Soe Win general

On March 27, deputy commander-in-chief Gen Soe Win gave a speech at the parade commemorating the 74th anniversary of Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army) Day held in Naypyitaw on behalf of the commander-in-chief Gen Min Aung Hlaing as he was unable to attend due to his knee injury the previous day.

His speech was directed at the three most principle players, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA)-signatory, NCA-non-signatory EAOs and the NLD.

For the signatory EAOs his message could be categorized as the need to adhere to the NCA guidelines and not to deviate with demands that are not stated in the agreement. And as for the non-signatory EAOs, he urged them to sign the NCA as soon as possible and to misuse and make positive use of the Tatmadaw’s unilateral ceasefire announced of December 21 last year, which its four months long duration will expire on April 30. It further urged them not to indulge in activities that could harm the peace process but take opportunity to talk to either the National Reconciliation and Peace Center (NRPC) or the Tatmadaw for the country’s benefit and its people.

So far as the NLD is concerned, the message is for the ruling party to be mindful of the minority voice according to the democratic principle and stick to the rule, where constitutional amendment is concerned. In other words, the NLD should shelve its recent push, which the military bloc – Tatmadaw representatives and the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) – is against, for the amendment through parliamentary procedure and instead continue the NCA-based peace process and from which outcomes the constitution should be amended.

The EAOs

Regarding the irregularities of the two past elections Gen Soe Win said: “According to the experiences of 2010 and 2015 elections, areas where the EAOs reside and some of the adjacent areas resulted in unfair elections. To conduct fair elections and avoid unfairness, all the EAOs are urged to sign the NCA and do things that are necessary politically.”

The general said the Tatmadaw announced that all military movements have been ceased from 21st December, 2018 to 30th April, 2019 in Northern, North-East, Eastern, Eastern Central and Triangle Region Command to make a constructive discussion about peace process peacefully and freely. During the cessation of military operations, the channel is open for EAOs to negotiate peace, including ceasefire in the operational area concerned.

“During ceasefire, I would like to reiterate that EAOs are to make discussion for peace as soon as possible, either with the NRPC or with the Tatmadaw Negotiation Team by avoiding any activities which can harm the peace process,”  stressed Gen Soe Win.

Concerning the signatory EAOs the general said: “EAOs need to negotiate in accordance with the NCA’s framework but should not prioritize or make demands that are not central to the peace process.”

“While the peace process is in progress, the EAOs should not to put forward propositions about confusing issues as a priority and add irrelevance to the peace process,” he added.

The NLD

The deputy commander-in-chief also touched on constitutional amendment in his speech. He said, over the eight years since the constitution was introduced, sectors including government, parliament, democratic reforms, economic reforms and international relations had been strengthened.

Even then, he readily agreed that the constitutional amendment in some sectors are necessary but said it should be done according to the the procedures of Chapter 12 as written in the constitution. He further pointed out also that especially the points agreed to by the EAOs achieved through Union Peace Conferences in form of “Union Accord” will have to be proposed to the parliament for endorsement.

“Those agreed points should  be taken into consideration when the constitution is amended,” he said.

He also left no doubt that the Tatmadaw is not happy with the recent ongoing NLD-led constitutional amendment within the parliament, which it has rejected from the outset when it was started two months ago.

“If one wins with majority vote and ignore the desires of the minority, the stability of the country would be at stake,” he said to air his displeasure of the NLD making use of its majority vote within the parliament to override the military bloc’s protest and rejection.

AA-Tatmadaw conflict

Regarding the current armed conflict between Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army (AA) in turbulent Arakan state and January 4 attack of the AA on four border guard police outposts, Gen Soe Win said he regarded the act as breaching of the country’s sovereignty. And he explicitly stressed: “I would like to assert that Tatmadaw is going to eliminate any armed insurgents for peace, tranquility and law enforcement of the Union.”

Analysis

Given such development and political scenarios, Gen Soe Win’s speech could be evaluated differently taking into account of the three actors in the field.

For the non-signatory EAOs, the message is time is running out as the unilateral ceasefire will expire on April 30 and they should consider signing the NCA or else meet the consequence sort of ultimatum. In the mean time, the NRPC is maintaining the stance of open door policy for all the non-signatory EAOs, including the Tatmadaw’s much hated AA. But whether the Tatmadaw will become more accommodating and tone down its offensives on them is another question. For now, it is a carrot and stick approach.

As for the signatory EAOs, the thrust is for them not to beat around the bush and stop demanding unnecessary goals and resume the NCA-based peace process. The two largest signatory EAOs, the Karen National Union and Restoration Council of Shan State have suspended theirs participation in NCA-based peace process, which halted the negotiation altogether since last November.

The message for the NLD is to abandon the constitutional amendment within the parliament and resume the NCA-based peace process, which in turn will give direction to amendment the constitution.

In sum, the NLD is fed up with the NCA-based process as it is getting nowhere party due to the Tatmadaw’s maneuvering in the field and the unclear EAOs’ common position cacophony. The Tatmadaw in turn is afraid that its political edge will be wipe away too soon, before it can either effectively build a fallback cushion plan for gradual withdrawal or figure out a way to prolong its influence through built-in legal means.