The Regime Pushes Ahead with Sham Census - More than 50% of Myanmar No Longer Under Junta Control

The Regime Pushes Ahead with Sham Census - More than 50% of Myanmar No Longer Under Junta Control

The Junta has begun distributing awareness pamphlets and erecting billboards, as part of its preparations for the nationwide population census in towns and villages under its full control.

The Junta announced that from June 12 -21, it erected awareness billboards for the planned census in Yangon, Mandalay, Ayeyarwady, Bago, Magway, and Tanintharyi regions, as well as Shan and Mon states and its main stronghold Naypyidaw.

Upon closer examination, it becomes evident that these billboard installations have been conducted in approximately 10 - 15 townships each across Ayeyarwady, Yangon regions, and Shan State.

However there are fewer than 5 townships in Mandalay Region, 2 each in Magway Region and Mon State, and only 1 township each in Tanintharyi and Bago regions where such installations have occurred.

In areas where it has already lost control and faces strong resistance—such as in the Sagaing Region, Kachin, Chin, Rakhine, Karenni, Shan (north), and Karen states—the Junta has not yet initiated effective efforts to conduct a population census.

In Sagaing Region, where resistance is strong, a local woman remarked that conducting a census even in towns under Junta rule, is nearly impossible, particularly in vast rural areas.

“Even in towns where the Junta still controls, it is no longer capable of conducting a comprehensive population census. Therefore, conducting such a census in rural areas is entirely impractical. If authorities attempt a census in these rural areas, they will need to be accompanied by military escorts. Upon hearing news of Junta movements toward villages, locals tend to evacuate beforehand, often leaving villages deserted by the time authorities arrive. How can they conduct a population census in villages lacking residents?”, she said.

The Junta has stated multiple times that the nationwide population census is scheduled to take place from October 1 -15th.

The Junta also announced plans to utilize computer support systems and mobile tablets for door-to-door census data collection.

Despite the Junta maintaining control over large areas of Mon State, population census awareness billboards were only erected in Mawlamyine and Modon townships on June 19 and 21.

In Ye, the sole township under martial law declared by the Junta in Mon State, where ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and resistance forces are highly active, there has been no notable effort by the Junta in preparing for the population census, locals reported.

"In Ye, the Junta has not taken any steps. There are no billboards put up or pamphlets distributed. We do not think it is possible to conduct these either. From what we can see, there has been no such activity in Ye so far”, a Ye resident told Than Lwin Times.

The Junta faced significant setbacks in resistance battles triggered by the coup across the country, resulting in relinquishing vast territories and numerous military installations. It has also lost control over 60 towns.

In Kachin, Chin, Rakhine, Karen, and Tanintharyi, EAOs and allied People's Defense Force (PDF) factions are waging war against the Junta.

Given the circumstances, the coup leader announced on June 15 his intention to conduct a population census as a preparatory measure for next year's general election.

Political analyst U Than Soe Naing predicted that the Junta could proceed with census awareness campaigns in approximately 200 townships but will encounter significant limitations.

“As it stands, the Junta may continue census preparations in about 200 townships. Given that elections serve as its sole political exit strategy, the Junta is determined to carry it out. However, a critical question remains: how and to what extent will political parties participating in the election conduct regional campaigns? There will be numerous challenges and limitations to navigate”, he pointed out.

The Junta leader, who staged the coup citing flaws and irregularities in the 2020 election, has announced plans to conduct a national population census to facilitate the election which he plans to organize, since the beginning of the year.

Last year, from October 1 to 15, the Junta selected 20 townships across several regions and states, divided into 100 constituencies, and conducted a trial population census.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) announced that due to intensified armed conflicts following the coup, the number of people fleeing their homes has steadily increased, resulting in over 3 million displaced individuals out of Myanmar's 55 million population.

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