Following the Chinese ambassador to Myanmar Hong Liang’s Myitkyina visit that took place from 28 to 29 December 2018, where he met leaders of political parties and social organizations in Kachin State, news have been making the rounds that the ambassador has been bossy and even intimidating when interacting with the Kachin leaders during his visit.

Reportedly, during the visit, ambassador Hong Liang met with chairman of the Kachin State Democracy Party (KSDP) Manam Tu Ja, chairman of the Unity and Democracy Party of Kachin State (UDP-KS) U Hkyet Hting Nan, chairman of the Kachin Democracy Party (KDP) Gumgrawng Awng Hkam, chairman of the Lisu National Development Party U Si Phar Lar Lu (U Shwe Minn), chairman of the Shan Ethnic Affairs Society (Northern Myanmar) U Sai San Wae and chairman of the Kachin Baptist Convention Hkalam Samson.

According to the The Irrawaddy report on January 9, when the Chinese ambassador met Gumgrawng Awng Hkam and Rev. Hkalam Samson respectively at Palm Spring Hotel in Myitkyina, he warned them not to be so cordial and friendly with western diplomats, otherwise they would face serious consequences. Both claimed that the ambassador briefed them in a bossy manner, warning them not to oppose Chinese projects in Kachin State, including the controversial Myitsone hydro-power project.

The meeting with the Chinese ambassador came after the US and UK ambassadors visited Kachin State. During their meetings in Myitkyina with Kachin political leaders and other prominent members of the Kachin community, both ambassadors discussed the peace process, the safe return of internally displaced persons (IDPs), promotion of education and health and free and fair elections. Both Gumgrawng Awng Hkam and Rev. Hkalam Samson attended those meetings. Consequently, Kachin politicians invited the ambassadors to open liaison offices in Myitkyina in order to promote relations.

And as if to dispel the widely negative report in the media, on January 12, the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar posted a briefing on the ambassador’s Myitkyina visit, portraying that the Kachin people were supportive of the Myitsone dam project.

But as soon as this became public, the Kachin leaders denied that they have made any such endorsement comment in any way, discrediting the Chinese Embassy statement that implied support for the divisive project among the state’s political leaders.

Myitsone-dam

On January 14, the three ethnic Kachin political parties, KSDP, KDP and UDP-KS, issued a three-point statement, which wrote:

• Concerning Myitsone dam project (there is) a policy principle of permanent suspension
• Regarding internal peace process (we) will work hand-in-hand together with China, UN and international community
• Concerning the planned industrial projects within the Kachin State, planning and implementation have to be made only after internal peace is achieved

Manam Tu Ja, chair of the KSDP, told Frontier Myanmar that the statement is a clarification of their position aimed and addressed at the Kachin people. However, he stressed that it could also help the Chinese embassy to understand the wishes and policies of the three parties.

“We have no plan yet to respond directly to the Chinese Embassy because some [other] parties in Kachin could have said that they support the project,” he said.

Reportedly,  Lisu National Development Party chaired by U Shwe Min was said to be supportive of the hydro-power project, partly because the residents of Tan Hpre, Pa Tan and Myitsone villages who had been relocated had received adequate compensation.

Myitsone dam controversy

Myitsone is one of seven hydro-power plants planned for the upper reaches of the Irrawaddy or Ayeyarwady River.  The proposed construction site is at the confluence of the Mali and N’mai rivers and the source of the Irawaddy River. The 6000MW dam, backed by State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC), then known as China Power Investment Corporation, was supposed to send 90pc of its electricity to China’s Yunnan Province. Two years after the construction started, the then  Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)-led president Thein Sein suspended the work in building the US$3.6 billion dam in 2011, due to massive and widespread opposition of the project within the country.

When the National League for Democracy (NLD) regime came to power in 2016, it promised to review the project and formed an Investigation Commission for the Irrawaddy-Myitsone Upstream River Basin Hydro-power Projects, to review the project and determine whether it would adequately benefit Myanmar. So far, the Commission has submitted two reports to the President’s Office, in 2016 and 2018, but has yet to make any information public.

Now that the Chinese are pushing hard to restart the project since the second half of 2018, with the Chinese ambassador to Myanmar hinting that the state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi has changed her mind affirmatively for the project, the NLD needs to come up with a clear message on where it stands on the issue.

Regarding the restarting of the project  Rev. Hkalam Samson of KBC recently said: “I presumed that our Kachin public voice has not change. But tone of the NLD government has changed according to the Chinese ambassador, although it has rejected the project when it was in the opposition.”

Additionally he stressed: “ The project is not the concern of the Kachin people alone but the whole country. That’s why it depends on the decision of whole country, whether we endorse or reject it.”

In the same vein, Kachin Development Networking Group general secretary Tsa Ji said the government has to make clear decision. He said: “If the project is forcefully implemented we have to reject it according to our historical duty. The main thing is the country’s leaders have to make transparent decision what their opinion (regarding the project) are where the public is concerned. It is important that clear decision is made for the country.

While Dr Myo Nyunt the NLD spokesman recently said that priority will be given to the people’s opinion, nothing is concretely spelt out.

Dr Yan Myo Thein, a well known political observer and analyst speculated and pointed out that the NLD bogged down in the midst of international pressure, where nobody could be sure whether the UN and UNSC proposed sanctions will happen or not, and Myanmar has to rely on the veto powers of China and Russia, the NLD government’s ability to resist the Chinese pressure for its economic incentives becomes weak.

Meanwhile, a government-sponsored final version study report conducted by the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) warned against restarting the highly controversial Myitsone dam and recommended alternatives to develop the country’s hydro-power sector, according to the recent report in Myanmar Times.

The report proposes cascade development — multiple dams on certain rivers, allowing other rivers to be left intact. It also makes clear recommendations that dams on mainstream rivers such as the Ayeyarwady – where Myitsone is located – and Thanlwin are high risk for Myanmar through their impacts on the ecosystems on which the populations downstream depend. Hence, Myitsone, Mongton and the other dams should be avoided because of their negative downstream impacts, and development of new hydro-power should focus on other opportunities and prioritise those in river sub-basins with lower environmental values.

Christopher Bonzi, World Wide Fund’s water and energy specialist, also cautioned: “We would strongly advise the government not to restart the work on Myitsone project based on the devastating social and environmental impacts which have been well documented,” adding that the pro-hydro-power premise of the report is not justified, according to the Myanmar Times.

http://karennews.org/2011/06/villagers-fear-salween-dam/

Outlook and perspective

Given such circumstances, the positions of major stakeholders positions can be speculated as the following.

The NLD-led government although it has inherited the Myitsone dam project from the USDP-led regime (even though government suspended it during its four years rule) now seems to be giving in to the Chinese pressure to restart. This could either be because the commitment of the previous State Peace and Development Party military regime has to be honoured as a successor government according to the international contractual norms or the heavy reliance for protection within the UNSC regarding the condemnation and possible effective sanctions by China’s veto power as a permanent member of the UNSC.

However, for the moment the NLD government isn’t coming out with a clear message on where it stands on the dam project.

The Chinese in turn might be seeing the situation as an opportunity and the time to strike while the iron is hot, as the hydro-power project is one way or the other connected to its Belt and Road Initiative and China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, at least in realizing the huge infrastructure projects that would come with them. And with the phobia of Chinese investment increasingly seen as a “debt trap” by many countries and lately the cancellation of the Malaysian commitment to the BRI, China seems much in a hurry to turn the fortune around to its advantage.

As for the Kachin people the project is seen as a environmental disaster if implemented. Starting from 2009, the KIO petitioned to the then ruling general Than Shwe to abandon the undertaking in its letter, stating the virtue and benefit of the Irrawaddy River for the population living along the river from Kachin State to the Irrawaddy delta that stretches hundreds of miles.

The public sentiment of the whole country on this issue seems largely to be in line with the Kachin people, except for the government and domestic investors. And as such, being placed between a rock and a hard place, many community leaders are increasingly keen to formulate a common public stance vis a vis the controversial hydro-power dam project.