The Junta's recent announcement of plans to revive the Myitsone hydroelectric dam project, dormant for over a decade, indicates a desperate attempt to deflect public attention away from the political and economic crisis and  the chronic lack of foreign investment, according to analysts.

On September 10, 2011, during President U Thein Sein's administration, the Myitsone project was indefinitely suspended in response to widespread opposition from the people of Myanmar. Nearly 13 years later, the Junta is poised to revive China's project. On May 17 the Junta officially announced the formation of a steering committee tasked with revitalizing the Myitsone project.

Political analysts say this may be a desperate strategy of the Junta, which has been losing many military bases to resistance forces led by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Kachin State, to distract the public's attention with hopes pinned on a favourable response  from China.

The Myitsone is the region where the N'Mai and Mali rivers converge, forming the mighty Ayeyarwady River and is regarded as the sacred heritage and birthplace of the Kachin people.

The Myitsone project proposes the construction of five dams on the N'Mai River, one on the Mali River, and one on the Ayeyarwady River, located four miles downstream from the confluence of the two rivers. This plan involves the creation of a total of seven dams to harness hydroelectric power. The agreement for the entire project was signed in 2006 between the Myanmar Military regime at that time and China Power Investment Company (CPI).

A Kachin political analyst remarked, "Amidst heightened military tensions in Kachin State, the Junta established an 11-member steering committee to restart the Myitsone project on April 24. On May 4 KIA launched its second wave of operations, seizing additional Junta camps and military installations. These developments suggest that the Junta, facing sustained losses on the battlefield, is actively seeking a ceasefire agreement, potentially with support from China. It appears the Junta aims to quell hostilities, particularly in areas like Myitkyina, Waingmaw, Chipwi, and Hsawlaw, which are closely linked to the project, with assistance from China.”

"Whenever the Junta faces tough times, it hopes to distract the public attention. It is clear to everyone that with the intense fighting around the Myitsone area, restarting the project seems improbable. Yet, the Junta is pushing the issue forcefully to divert the public's attention”, he pointed out.

A young woman from the Myitsone area vowed to vehemently oppose the implementation of the Myitsone project for as long as she lives. "The Myitsone dam project has already caused significant harm to our community. I was forcibly displaced with my family when I was young because of this project. As I grew older, I understood the broader impact it would have on Myanmar. We must warn future generations about its dangers and prevent it from happening. I do not want anyone else to experience more forced displacements because of this project. That’s why I will continue fighting against it as long as I live”, she stated.

The Junta established the steering committee, officially named the Upstream Ayeyawady Confluence Basin Hydroelectric Project Steering Group, on April 24, with its formation formally confirmed only on May 17.

The observers have also suggested that the Junta's decision to reactivate the project, in a region fraught with military tensions, may be driven by the Junta's desire to curry favor with China. It is likely that the Junta hopes to leverage this favour to encourage China’s support

for Junta political and military agendas in Kachin State.

During the two-month operation initiated by KIA on March 7, it managed to seize over 100 military installations and bases of various sizes belonging to the Junta, and gained control over six towns. Fighting has also intensified in Waingmaw, located just across the Ayeyawady River from Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State. KIA has successfully captured the headquarters of the Junta's Waingmaw-garrisoned force, the 321st Light Infantry Battalion.

The tasks of the steering committee, in collaboration with the leadership of SPIC Yunnan International Power Investment Co., Ltd (SPICYN), are research activities, technical solutions and public relations activities for the Myitsone project, and to provide guidance and decision-making to the technical working group, according to the Junta’s statement.

The implementation of the project led to the confiscation of land from five villages surrounding Myitsone—Aungjaryang, Daungpan, Lapye, Myitsone, and Tanphaye—resulting in the forced relocation of thousands of residents.

Later, SPIC established a new village called Aung Myin Thar to provide resettlement for the displaced people.

Families who owned extensive land in their previous villages were allotted only one house, each built on a plot measuring 40x60 feet, in the new village. Due to the forced relocation, many locals continue to face economic hardships, livelihood struggles, and inadequate housing, according to some members of the community.

Dam breaches in China and globally have devastating effects on local communities, resulting in loss of human lives. Environmental experts emphasize the urgent need for public opposition to the Junta's decision to proceed with a large-scale project that poses significant harm to the public, all for the sake of appeasing China, without heeding the lessons from dam disasters around the world.

"I do not think the Myitsone project will ever happen. Environmentalists, locals, and people across Myanmar are united in opposing it, and we will keep protesting against it strongly”, Deputy Director of Kachin Environmental Group (KEG), Sai Ni said.

The Ayeyarwady River serves as Myanmar's vital artery, sustaining millions of livelihoods. Environmental advocates emphasize that neglecting its preservation will perpetuate the country's cycle of poverty.

Hence, residents of Myitsone hold firm in their belief that the Junta's irrational pursuit to revive the Myitsone project will falter in practice, failing to sway the political and military consciousness of the people.

The Junta’s belief that China will necessarily be happy to re-starting the Myitsone dam  project at a time when the regime is in dire straits and will not be able to guarantee security for the project, also seems unlikely. In recent months China has been quietly distancing itself from the coup regime and is far more concerned about protections for its existing investments, rather than shelling out any new funds for a re-incarnation of a moth-balled dam.