Tensions between the Junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance have escalated to their highest point, leading a reliable military source to warn and advise residents on June 13 to take precautionary measures for their safety.

On October 27 last year, the Alliance launched 'Operation 1027' in northern Shan State, capturing 17 towns. Following this, when Lashio was encircled by the Alliance, China's intervention led to the signing of the Haigeng Agreement on January 31, resulting in a ceasefire between the Junta and the Alliance.

“During the ceasefire, the Junta replenished its men and weapons in Lashio, making it strong enough to launch a counterattack. War will be inevitable, as the Junta needs to recapture the border trade posts to earn foreign income and restore its credibility ”,the source said.

China has intervened to reopen border trade routes through territories seized by Alliance members during 'Operation 1027',and some trade has resumed.

However the peace agreement laid down by the 5th Haigeng Conference has been violated by the build-up of Junta forces especially its  consolidating at its headquartersin Lashio.

Thay are also engaged in shoring up  Muse, Kyaukme, Hsipaw (Thibaw), and Maymyo (Pyin Oo Lwin), which remain under its control.

The source told Shan Herald, “There are reports indicating that the Junta has amassed tens of thousands of forces. In Kyaukme and Hsipaw, both the Junta and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) have deployed their positions in close proximity. The Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) is also active in those regions. Meanwhile, the Junta is preparing for potential fighting in Mongyai, suggesting that war could erupt again at any moment. The Junta's actions are provocative”.

Despite the Haigeng Agreement stipulating a ceasefire, the Junta has continued to frequently attack Nawnghkio (Naungcho) and Mongmit (Momeik) townships with shelling and airstrikes. TNLA further accused the Junta of deliberately destroying the Hsipaw-Namtu Road and attempting to block trade routes, actions that clearly violate the Haigeng Agreement.

In Lashio, Kyaukme, and Nawnghkio, all under Junta control, locals are experiencing heightened anxiety as the Junta fortifies defenses and makes war preparations.

“There are various rumors circulating, but as of this morning, traffic on the Lashio-Mandalay Road is flowing normally. Reports of Lashio being closed off are untrue; the town entrances remain open until morning. However, I am unsure of the situation for the afternoon yet”, a Lashio resident said.

If clashes reignite in northern Shan State, the fighting will be ferocious, and there is a risk that residents of Muse, still encircled by the Alliance, could be caught in the conflict. Therefore sources close to the military, have advised residents of Muse and other towns to stay alert, and make advance preparations for all possible scenarios.