The Myanmar junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing told the Chinese Premier Li Qiang that if the Three Brotherhood Alliance genuinely seeks peace the junta remains open to dialogue.
The comment was made at a meeting between the two men on the sidelines of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) summit on 6 November 2024.
Min Aung Hlaing said that for peace talks to proceed the Three Brotherhood Alliance members, the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), would need to demonstrate clearly that they desire peace, but he did not specify what this would entail.
He also labelled them as terrorist organisations and said they need to prioritise necessary choices over pursuing their own interests.
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, an expert on China-Myanmar affairs suggested that Min Aung Hlaing might demand, as he has in the past, that the Brotherhood Alliance lays down its arms. He considered this very unlikely.
He said: “Min Aung Hlaing has said that Alliance members must first show a commitment to peace, as he seeks to reclaim territories they control. He has also previously stated that any group wishing to engage in political dialogue must first lay down their weapons. But who would accept his unreasonable demand—that his organisation remains armed while others disarm just to enter talks? As long as the junta exists, true peace is nearly impossible.”
Min Aung Hlaing also incorrectly told Li Qiang that it was the Brotherhood Alliance that broke the Chinese brokered 12 January 2024 Haigang ceasefire between the Alliance and the junta. In reality the junta broke the ceasefire the next day, 13 January, by launching airstrikes against Alliance members. It continued to do so until the ceasefire completely collapsed in June 2024.
Li Qiang told Min Aung Hlaing that stability in northern Myanmar is important to China and China does not want to see anything happening there that will damage Myanmar’s interests, particularly any action that originates in China’s territory.
Li Qiang also assured Min Aung Hlaing that China will support the junta's updated five-point roadmap [see Footnote] and will assist in ensuring the successful conduct of the planned elections.
U Than Soe Naing, a political analyst believes that China may be able to put pressure on the Brotherhood Alliance to bring them to the negotiating table but that peace will be impossible to reach with Min Aung Hlaing in charge.
He said: “Min Aung Hlaing talks about peace on one hand, but on the other, he is escalating violence.”
According to data from the Human Rights Action Network (HRAN), based in northern Shan State, junta attacks have killed 339 civilians in northern Shan State since the launch of Operation 1027 on 27 October 2024.
Three Brotherhood Alliance members now control 38 towns northern Shan and Arakan states. The junta has been carrying out airstrikes on these towns in an attempt to prevent the Alliance from setting up stable town administrations.
The northern parts of Myanmar, bordering China, are heavily reliant on imports from China for electricity, medicine, food, fuel, consumer goods, and other basic necessities.
China has already blocked border trading posts controlled by anti-junta ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) in Kachin State and northern Shan State.
Despite this, Min Aung Hlaing called on China to curb illegal border trade that could help fund the Brotherhood Alliance.
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw believes that might not be possible.
He said: “Clearly, the border trading posts will be closed, as the Chinese Central Government has issued direct and specific instructions to shut them down. However, I believe local authorities will come to a compromise with local traders and unofficially ease some of the restrictions.”
After the meeting with the Chinese Premier, the junta announced that the Premier had told Min Aung Hlaing that all the border crossings in Myanmar should be controlled by the junta government and that China would work to facilitate this.
Following the Brotherhood Alliance’s capture of more junta controlled towns in northern Shan State in the second phase of Operation 1027, China started putting pressure on Brotherhood Alliance members.
Due to this pressure the MNDAA stated that it would not cooperate, either politically or militarily, with the National Unity Government (NUG). The TNLA and the AA have, so far, not bowed to Chinese pressure and continue to pursue their objectives and attack the junta as they have in the past.
Footnote
Below is the junta’s updated five-point road map:
1. An emphasis will be placed on ensuring the peace and stability of the whole Union to enjoy the full rule of law so that a free and fair multiparty democratic general election can be successfully held.
2. There will be continuous efforts made to promote the state’s economy and the enhancement of the entire population’s socioeconomic life, including that of ethnic people, by expediting manufacturing businesses rooted in agriculture and livestock farming.
3. Priority will be given to stability and the restoration of internal peace which is the primary objective of the state. The peace process will align with the agreements involved in the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) as much as possible.
4. More work will be done to strengthen a genuine disciplined multiparty democratic system and a union will be built based on democratic and federal principles.
5. Further stages of the roadmap will be undertaken to hand over the duties of state to the elected government which will emerge from the free and fair multiparty democratic general elections. The general elections will be fair and just, eligible voters will be able to exercise their rights and participate fully in the election process in compliance with the provisions of the State of Emergency.
