Sai Wansai — When the Burma army or Tatmadaw undertook air raids and bombardment of civilian targets in Paletwa Chin State, Ponnakyun and Ann townships in Arakan State, killing dozens and wounding scores of local people, many have no idea why it is taking such unpopular drastic decision with accompanying actions.

According to the various media and Arakan Army (AA) statement of April 14 civilian causalities resulting from this horrible tactical blunder were listed as the following.

On April 7, around 1:30 pm, Burma army air raids killed 7, wounded 8 civilians and burned down 7 houses, in Paletwa Township, Nan Chaung village.

On April 12, around 9:15 pm, Burma army bombarded Ann Township, using heavy artillery killing 1 from Dah Let village tract, Ah Leigyun village and seriously wounding 3 villagers. Some houses were destroyed in process and some animals were also killed and wounded.

On April 13, about 8 am, without any provocation, firefight or battle, Ponnagyun town based Light Infantry Battalion (LIB) 550 fired rounds of artillery which killed 8 and seriously wounded 13 civilians from Ponnagyun Township, Kyauk Seik village.

But a recent analysis from a reputable think-tank, which is considered to possess inside Tatmadaw information sources within the country reported that Tatmadaw lifted restrictions on attacking the AA in populated villages. The reason given by the analysis is said to be because AA has been using villages as logistical posts, which has now become a trend during its  recent operations against the Meewa base. In response, the Tatmadaw lifted restrictions to attack the AA in populated settlements reasoned the analysis.

As a result, Burma army escalated its artillery and airstrikes against populated villages during the month of March, burning down at least two villages.

In other words, all civilian targets are now considered as free fire zones in Tatmadaw’s retaliation against the AA. The AA likely deployed between 6,000 and 8,000 fighters across the northern Arakan State and Paletwa Township in southern Chin State, although its concrete strength cannot be determined.

This in effect means, the Tatmadaw is free to either return fire or shoot at suspicious targets regardless of whether they are civilian settlement or not. But in fact, it has been doing the random shooting at towns and villages under the pretext that the AA has been using civilian settlement covers to attack the Tatmadaw, especially when it’s troops were being ambushed near towns and villages or met landmine attacks.

The AA said that it has never used civilian settlement to attack the Tatmadaw and most ambushes took place were outside the towns or villages.

But now it is becoming crystal clear that the Tatmadaw considered all Arakanese or Rakhine people  to be AA sympathizers and thus the population, where armed conflicts occurred, is viewed as being either the enemy or nothing much to care about.

This argument is reinforced by many of the government’s spokesman press conference and also the Tatmadaw’s statements appealing to the Arakanese to side with the government and the Military instead of with the AA. And failing to do so will be met with destruction and annihilation. In other words, “if you are not with me, you are against me,” sort of generalization. There is no such consideration, whatsoever, that the people are citizens of the country and have to be protected from harms way at all cost.

Just imagine, the hostage-taker terrorist and the hostages scenario, where responsible government authorities will be utmost careful in rescuing the hostages than just rushes in without paying attention to the collateral damage that would follow from the rescue mission.

Parallel to this, mass arrest, humiliation and death in custody of the suspected AA functionaries have been the order of the day in Arakan State.

This more stick and less carrot tactics has created more AA sympathizers and swell the ranks of the resistance, instead of being able to quell the insurgency.

A recent opinion piece in Asia Sentinel written by Michele Penna writes: “AA enjoys a lot of sympathies among large parts of the Arakan population. Paradoxically, the Tatmadaw’s brutal counterinsurgency campaign which aims at cutting the ties between rebel groups and local communities will most likely only strengthen these ties in the long-run,” according to Dr. David Brenner, Lecturer in International Relations, Goldsmiths at University of London.

Thus, it looks like the Tatmadaw is bent on annihilation all out war against the AA at all cost and totally abandoned the strategy of winning the hearts and minds of the population or soliciting soft power realization.

The recent Voice of America Burmese section weekly program “Direct Airwaves” of April 14 aired a recorded interview with vice chairman of the military’s True News Information Team, Major General Tun Tun Nyi, in which he said AA should return to Liaza, in Kachin State, and that the Tatmadaw viewed the group as terrorist and has to be handled as such. This inevitably means bilateral talks that have been going on for sometimes with the northern alliance, is shelved and all out war of annihilation is the Tatmadaw’s goal.

Moreover, the Military has even issued ultimatum to the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) not to harbor the AA or face invasion and attacks in its controlled areas. The KIA has rejected the ultimatum and said that the Tatmadaw’s move is not conducive to peace-making. Even though so far there is no sign that any such preparation is being made.

The Tatmadaw’s beefing up its arsenal from sources like Russia, India and China have been going on for some years and it is now going to receive the first batch of Chinese-made SY-400 short-range ballistic missiles, which could be launched vertically and have a range of about 400 km.

“SY-400 missile is equipped with GPS/INS guidance system. It is steered to the intended target in the initial flight phase by four control surfaces and stabilizing fins. The missile uses a low lowering rate to extend the range. Multiple missiles can be aimed at different targets,” according to Army Recognition report of April 6.

Experts are pondering if the Tatmadaw has completely abandoned peaceful negotiation and now opted for total war to realize its unitary system with Bamar-ethnocentrism, perhaps with some democratic and federal trappings.

And the tendency is that the NLD and the Tatmadaw are on the same wavelength where limiting the ethnic nationalities’ self-determination is concerned, even though there could be some friction and adversary regarding power-sharing at national level.

But the problem with the Bamar political class and the Military is that both don’t have a holistic vision on how a multi-ethnic state should function, where democracy, equality and rights of self-determination are molded into a federal union, which all could accept and be proud of.

And since all indications pointed towards realizing Bamar racial supremacy, holding upright the unitary system and not federal democratic union, as aspired by the ethnic nationalities, an all out war to achieve this aim seems now the preferred solution for the powers that be in Naypyitaw.

All in all, unless the Bamar political class and the Military embrace political solution through political means, coupled with altruistic view, equality and unity in diversity, the present war path employment decision will only drag down the country to a new low, resulting in lose-lose outcome which no one is going to benefit.

Violent graphic content | freeburmarangers.org