The junta is reinforcing its forces in Karenni State increasing the likelihood of further fighting in the state in the coming cool and hot seasons, according to military analysts.

Nay Myo Zin, the Director of the Administrative Committee for Righteous Military Personnel under the Karenni Interim Executive Council (IEC) and a former junta officer said that fighting could escalate now that the rains have stopped and the junta has amassed a large force in Karenni State.

He explained that the junta wants to take back as much territory as it can, so that it can hold elections in those areas to help make the elections appear more legitimate to other countries.

He said: “The terrorist junta, which is losing on many fronts, is certain to deploy its military columns in Mobye (Mongpai) and Pekon towns [in southern Shan State] to hold elections. Their primary goal is to seize control of Pekon and Mobye. Afterward, they plan to bring back around 400 to 500 displaced households, or as many as possible, to these towns to force them to vote. The junta aims to create the appearance of elections being held in every town for the international community, which is why they will escalate their offensives.”

Currently, the towns of Pekon and Mobye in southern Shan State on the border with Karenni State are mostly under the control of resistance forces, but the junta has a presence in the towns and there are ongoing skirmishes between the resistance forces and the junta in the towns.

Since the second week of September 2024, a time when there was flooding in Karenni State, the junta has been sending reinforcements to Pekon and Mobye towns.

The junta-allied Pa'O National Organization (PNO) has been advancing from Pinlaung Town in Shan State since mid-June. It has now reached the vicinity of Pekon and Mobye towns and is currently involved in heavy fighting against Karenni resistance forces and the Kayan National Army (KNA) in those areas.

Demoso and Hpasawng towns in Karenni State are also mainly controlled by resistance forces, but again there are still some junta forces in the towns which leads to sporadic fighting.

The junta has two battalions based in Hpasawng Town, Infantry Battalion (IB) 134 and IB 135. but their bases are surrounded by resistance forces and they cannot leave them. Resistance forces have been trying to capture the two bases for the past eight months, but there has been no recent major fighting in the town, according to Colonel Phone Naing, an adjutant general of the Karenni Army (KA)

The townships of Demoso and Hpasawng outside of the towns, are also mainly controlled by resistance forces but there are still junta forces remaining in both townships meaning that sometimes there is fighting.

In mid- September about 500 junta soldiers from IB 102 and Light Infantry Battalion (LIB) 427 moved from Loikaw Town and entered Demoso Town, according to officers from the Demoso People's Defence Force (PDF).

They have taken up positions in the town and are firing artillery into villages in the vicinity, according to a member of a local people’s defence force (PDF) who spoke to NMG.

He said: “So far, the junta has not made any operational advances. Instead, its troops are focused on fortifying  their positions and indiscriminately shelling the surrounding areas with artillery. These are the only developments at the moment.”

Currently, the junta is airlifting reinforcements into Demoso Township and to Hpasawng Township and to the IB 134 and IB 135 bases in Hpasawng Town. It is also sending troops by land into Demoso Township, according to officers from the Karenni joint resistance forces.

These developments could lead to increased fighting in Pekon, Mobye, Demoso and Hpasawng townships, according to military analysts.