Following the meeting with the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army) delegation led by Lt. General Yar Pyae and representatives of Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) led by vice president (2) Maj-Gen Sao Khun Seng held at Paung Laung guesthouse in Naypyitaw on February 25 and with the military offering the SSPP to hold meeting once a month to build mutual trust, the four-day offensive from 7 to 10 March, conducted by the Tatmadaw against the SSPP, at the mountain range area called Loi Pang Hkar, where southern and northern Shan state meet, came as big surprise, if not totally unexpected. And even more so as this happened despite a four-month unilateral ceasefire declared by the Tatmadaw in December last year in five military command regions including also the Shan state.

“When we met on February 25 with the Tatmadaw, we have an agreement to de-escalate the conflict in the north (of Shan state). That’s why we don’t think it (the offensive) will happen. But the Tatmadaw’s combination of north-eastern and eastern-central commands attacking us together is difficult to comprehend,” said major Sai Phong Han spokesman of the SSPP on March 11 to the media.

Parallel to it another armed clash between the Tatmadaw and SSPP occurred on March 9 at the border of Hsipaw-Namlan  area as the former intruded into the latter’s area despite warning of not to do so, according to the SSPP.

The Tatmadaw combined force of some 500 attacked the SSPP on the ground, while helicopter gunships were also used according to the SSPP sources. The post attacked at Loi Pang Hkar is located in the area where Kesi, Mongkai, Mongyai and Hsipaw townships meet.

The SSPP also alleged that Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) forces assisted the government troops but RCSS denies the allegation.

“Because helicopter gunships were attacking us, two civilians got injured,” SSPP officer Sai Kon told Shan Herald Agency for News (SHAN) on  March 10, referring to locals from the Pang Hkar area. “Clashes were very intense today. Two military columns from the government forces attacked us.”

But according to Radio Free Asia report of March 11, one local villager was killed and two villagers wounded because of the fighting said the rescue aid workers helping the affected villagers.

The casualty was said to be high on both sides as the armed clashes were fierce said the SSPP sources. But the release of exact figures have not been made public by both the warring parties. The piece of news regarding the casualty is that three bodies belonging to Tatmadaw troops, including soldiers ranked sergeant, corporal, and a private were recovered according to the SSPP, but SHAN said it was unable to independently confirm these casualties at the time of reporting.

The attack of Tatmadaw on  SSPP position at the mountain range Pang Hkar has resulted in some 500 displaced persons which are now being sheltered in two Buddhist monasteries in Khesi township.

Earlier, due to the  the two Shan armed groups – the RCSS and SSPP – armed clashes stemming from territorial dispute more than 2,500 people are displaced in northern Shan state, according to the Shan sources.

However, the recent report of United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) said that more than 10,000 people in northern Shan state are displaced during the period from early January to March 12, due to the inter-ethnic conflict and also because of the Tatmadaw and Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) armed clashes, according to the Democratic Voice of Burma of March 13.

“Because of the frequently happening armed clashes and dangers of land mines, the people have to move back and forth between the Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps and their homes. Forced portering of the local people including children, battles and land mines have being causing injuries and death (to the population),” said the report.

Prior to February 23, Tatmadaw press conference clarifying its positions on parliamentary constitutional amendment and summarized facts and situation report on two months period of unilateral ceasefire declaration by the Tatmadaw on December 21, 2018. It has warned the EAOs to withdraw back to their designated areas, which are different interpreted and understood by warring parties, and other restrictions by February 12 or face the consequences.

On February 23 press conference, the Tatmadaw outlined its clarification as below.

“ Maj-Gen Soe Naing Oo said during the two months after the announcement of the statement on ceasefire and eternal peace, the armed ethnic groups in the areas of five military commands made (military) engagements with the Tatmadaw for six times, armed clashes between themselves (inter-ethnic conflict between EAOs) for 25 times, launched activities beyond the designated area for 286 times, collected extortion money for 22 times, and recruited new members for 30 times.”

And since February the armed clashes have been ongoing between the Tatmadaw and all of the Norther Alliance – Burma (NA-B) members – Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Kachin Independence Army (KIA) – in  northern Shan state and the recent renewed offensives on the SSPP is to show its commitment to the ultimatum made.

Another alliance member Arakan Army (AA) is in ongoing heightened armed conflict with the Tatmadaw in Arakan state since the end of last year.

The other explanation could be the implementation of carrot and stick strategy, as the recent offer shows, extending invitation for peace talks to all NCA-non-signatory EAOs in Naypyitaw on March 21 and 22 with  National Reconciliation and Peace Center (NRPC) and Tatmadaw respectively.

The NRPC sent letters to all Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) members and Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) on March 13 inviting them to Naypyitaw for peace talks.

The FPNCC is made up of NA-B and United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) and SSPP.

Still another explanation could be to keep the war flames on as a means to exert its importance and influence in peace-making and supremacy position in political arena, because of its “siege mentality” regarding the National League for Democracy-led constitutional amendment deliberations and implementations, which it cannot block within the parliament and sees as a threat to dismantle its political edge or leadership guaranteed by the constitution.

As such, the offensive on the SSPP could be seen as softening the enemy before negotiation and also sending mixed signals to keep the whole EAOs off-balanced.

In such a situation, with the end of the four-month long unilateral ceasefire announcement fast coming to an end on April 30, the failure to project positive result is there for all to see. Thus, whether the last ditch effort by the latest NRPC’s invitation, with the consent of the Tatmadaw for peace talks to the non-signatory EAOs would be able to produce affirmative result or squeeze out some optimism in the stagnated peace process is anybody’s guess.