BNI-MPM Report Predicts Revolution Will Grow in 2025

BNI-MPM Report Predicts Revolution Will Grow in 2025

A Burma News International-Myanmar Peace Monitor (BNI-MPM) report predicts that during 2025 armed resistance in Myanmar could increase and see the capture of more junta-controlled camps and towns nationwide.

The report, City Conquest, City Control, and the Direction of the Revolution which came out on 28 January 2025, also predicts that increased cooperation between different resistance forces will lead to an expansion of areas where the resistance is operating.

According to data from the BNI-MPM report, between 1 January and 31 December 2024 there were a total of 2,039 armed clashes. Of those, 2,011 involved confrontations between junta forces and resistance forces. Of those armed clashes 60 per cent were between ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) and the junta. During 2024 EAOs fought more with the junta and coordinated more with other revolutionary forces than in 2023.

Resistance forces in northern Shan State, Chin State, and Arakan (Rakhine) State have been actively engaged in offensives and in Karenni (Kayah) State and Karen State resistance forces want to increase their offensives against the junta, according to the BNI-MPM report.

Karen National Union (KNU) spokesperson Padoh Saw Taw Nee said to BNI-MPM: “This revolution is in our hands, and I am certain that no form of dictatorship, including the junta's rule, will endure. It will fall, and I dare say that with confidence.”

During 2024 EAOs and people’s defence forces (PDFs) under the National Unity Government (NUG) coordinated more.

Defence forces also expanded the area of their operations during 2024. The NUG established a regional command with columns, battalions, and tactical units in the Ayeyarwady Region, the Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA) and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) started operating in the Anyar (central lowland) areas.

The AA has captured up to 25 towns in Arakan and Chin states and has begun military operations in collaboration with its allies along the Arakan-Bago, Arakan-Magway, and Arakan-Ayeyarwady borders.

The report pointed out that the Arakan Army’s (AA) military successes have provided valuable supplies of arms and other military support to allied resistance forces in the Sagaing, Magway, Bago, and Ayeyarwady Regions, which border Arakan State. It said that the value of this was clearly demonstrated by the Chin Brotherhood Alliance's capture of Mindat Town in Chin State on 21 December 2024.

Captain Zin Yaw, a former junta officer who joined the anti-coup Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) said: “The AA and local resistance forces are currently conducting joint operations in the Bago and Magway regions. The AA has realised that capturing towns in these regions is not enough; it must continue fighting until the junta has completely collapsed.”

But, despite losing 14 townships in Arakan State to the AA the junta is preparing to counter the AA offensive at the borders of Arakan State to keep the AA confined there, according to the report.

According to BNI-MPM’s figures, resistance forces have now seized 95 towns across Myanmar.

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