[ rewritten by TF English editor with more factual background to the story ]

Almost three years since the 2021 coup, Asean’s feeble efforts to mediate a dialogue leading to peace talks including all parties have been firmly rejected by the military Junta.

After the failure of 3 previous special Asean envoys now with Laos taking over as Asean chairman a 4th Asean envoy has been appointed. Alounkeo Kittikhoun former Lao foreign minister ,and almost unknown in the region, will have even less inclination to put any pressure on the Military Council to make any concessions to Asean ‘s  Five-Point Consensus (5PC) peace plan in April 2021.

On January 10th The Military Council stated that it held its inaugural meeting with the new ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar, Alounkeo Kittikhoun., during his visit to Myanmar and the discussions centered around ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus and the peace initiative.

The ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar held separate meetings with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the coup Military Council, Interior Minister Lieutenant General Yar Pyae, and representatives from the 7 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) signatory ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in Naypyidaw.

Junta chief ,Min Aung Hlaing stated that he is aligning his efforts to achieve the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus, as outlined in the Military Council's statement.

In the meeting with Alounkeo, the 7 NCA-signatory EAOs discussed ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus, along with addressing matters related to the Myanmar peace process and humanitarian aid, according to the Military Council’s announcement.

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar affairs analyst, remarked that the stubborn Military Council shows no indication of relenting, characterizing Alounkeo's visit to Myanmar as a procedural step. He expressed scepticism about the trip yielding a distinctive turning point in Myanmar’s dilemma.

"Up to this point, the Myanmar Military, especially its leaders, haven't shown any inclination to soften their stance. There is no apparent intention to decentralize their powers or relinquish parts of their authority. Therefore, despite such discussions, I don't foresee the outcome being any different. The ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar, appointed by Laos, appears to have come solely to study the situation here. His trip cannot be more than a mere procedure exercise”, he elaborated.

Cambodia’s envoy Prak Sokhonn, one of the 3 previous Asian envoys met junta leaders in Naypyitaw, but said not even “Superman”,  could end the intractable Myanmar crisis.

ASEAN’s only reaction to the Junta's non-cooperation  with the 5- points, has been to exclude Myanmar from participating in summit meetings of the organization. However in 2023 a Thai-brokered meeting in Bangkok broke even this consensus on shunning the regime, by inviting the foreign ministers of Laos, Cambodia and  Vietnam to meet the junta’s envoy in spite of protests of Indonesia, Malaysia and other Asean members.

Myanmar academic Nyein Kaung who works with the NUG, has published a  critique of Asean’s failure. He reported that  “The war is now in its third year, with no end in sight, and the military has increased its budget by 50 percent, yet those in ASEAN who advocate for justice, democracy, and genuine action, are drowned out in a sea of equivocations, deflections, and meek excuses. The ASEAN statement called for a “conducive environment” to hold a “national dialogue,” but instead there is war.

Nyein Kaung’s commentary published in The Diplomat  also added “ ASEAN’s inaction is stalling the responses of external partners such as the United States, European Union, and Japan, who are looking to ASEAN to take the lead on Myanmar. Neutrality and impartiality are, at this point, no different from outright support for the dictatorship.”

There is almost no serious analyst of Myanmar affairs who  has any confidence that Asean- with no track record at all in conflict resolution in the region, has even a remote chance of achieving anything.

 The two big conflicts - both Cambodia conflict in the 1980s and the East Timor in 1999, were resolved outside the Asean framework of non-intervention in their fellow member states.

The UN, the US, the EU and Japan endlessly repeat “we are looking to Asean to take the lead on Myanmar ,” is a mantra of political and business convenience and cosmetic alibi for gross inaction over escalating war- crimes of the Junta. Never has it been clearer. that Asean is part of the problem, and not a party to a solution.

Consensus of ASEAN outlined the following 5 key points.

• First, there shall be immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar and all parties shall exercise utmost restraint.
• Second, constructive dialogue among all parties concerned shall commence to seek a peaceful solution in the interests of the people.
• Third, a special envoy of the ASEAN Chair shall facilitate mediation of the dialogue process, with the assistance of the Secretary-General of ASEAN.
• Fourth, ASEAN shall provide humanitarian assistance through the AHA Centre.
• Fifth, the special envoy and delegation shall visit Myanmar to meet with all parties concerned.