Since  October  2023 the Junta has suffered a stunning series of  losses in northern Shan State from a surprise October offensive from the Three Brotherhood Alliance. Last December Junta leader General Min Aung Hlaing appealed to China to intervene, broker peace talks that would prevent any further regime losses However In their third meeting in Kunming, sponsored by China, from January 7th to 9th, the Military Council again came away empty-handed from the talks that broke up with angry exchanges after the Junta demanded the surrender of Kokang forces (MNDAA),

A source told Shan Herald "In accordance with the customary procedures, the outcomes of the talks are typically disclosed overnight. However, on this occasion, we were notified that the discussion was terminated. It has come to our understanding that while the Military Council agreed to give up control of Kokang Special Region No. 1, it demanded the surrender of Kokang forces (MNDAA), leading to heightened tensions and the talks being aborted”.

The first discussions between the Military Council and the Three Brotherhood Alliance, conducted in China from December 11th to 13th, only resulted in an agreement for a temporary ceasefire. As part of the compromise, the Military Council committed to relinquishing control of the Sakanthit hill-based military camp in Namhkam Township to the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), a member of the Alliance.

During the second meeting, spanning from December 22nd to 24th, the Military Council suggested a reduction in military tensions in northern Shan State, while the Alliance placed emphasis on humanitarian concerns.

The Junta was sorely disappointed that China apparently did not intervene in support of the Military Council in spite of their considerable leverage with both sides.

Given the unfavorable outcome of the third meeting, there is a growing sense of concern among locals that the conflicts in the northern part of Shan State might intensify again, potentially spreading to Lashio where nearly 3000 war-displaced individuals are presently seeking refuge, and subsequently reaching the city of Mandalay.

Currently clashes in the vicinity of Lashio are escalating rapidly, causing heightened concerns among locals about its potential spread to downtown Lashio. Some residents have preemptively fled the town due to these apprehensions.

"In Lashio, residents are already fleeing, with over 100 cars leaving the town daily on average. Given the volatile situation, it is recommended that individuals with poor health and the elderly evacuate in advance. Those who remain in the town are constantly tuned into war-related news, as there is a prevailing concern that the battles may reach Lashio due to the unfavorable outcomes of the recent discussions”, a Lashio resident said.

Concurrently, Major General Zaw Min Tun, the spokesperson for the Junta, has stated that the Military is gearing up to rebuild security measures in Mankan (Monekoe) and Chinshwehaw, towns that have already been relinquished by the Military Council.

Meanwhile, on January 9th in Naypyidaw, the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC), controlled by the Military Council, engaged in discussions with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that had signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).

On January 10th, the second day of the two-day meeting, Alounkeo Kittikhoun, a veteran diplomat who was appointed as the ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar by the Laos government, was slated to attend.

Amidst the escalating resistance battles nationwide, the Military Council is desperately seeking negotiations for peace with EAOs.