A leading international think tank on security and conflict reports that the crisis in Burma remained unchanged following the events of August.

Despite the much anticipated 20th year anniversary of the 8-8-88 nationwide uprising and the much maligned visits of the United Nations Special Envoy to Burma and Human Rights Rapporteur to the country, the International Crisis Group (ICG) surmises that the conflict in Burma neither significantly improved nor deteriorated during the course of the last month.

Though seeming to credit the efforts of the United Nations representatives in August, the monthly bulletin, released yesterday, noted that the failure of Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari to secure meetings with either junta leader Senior General Than Shwe or democratic opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi brought into question the "efficacy of the UN effort."

ICG also balanced the scales with respect to the actions of the Indonesian government concerning Burma during August. The update noted that Jakarta's willingness to remove barriers to the exchange of ambassadors with Naypyitaw was countered by the welcoming of four National League for Democracy members to President Susilo Bambang Yudyohono's Independence Day address in the Indonesian capital.

The last change accredited to the Burmese conflict was in May 2008, when ICG judged the situation in Burma to have worsened as a result of "a massive cyclone and the military government's heavily criticised response."

In the five year history of ICG's monthly conflict assessment bulletin, the situation in Burma has never once been estimated to have improved.

Fellow ASEAN member, Philippines, was one of twelve countries deemed to have witnessed a worsening in conflict in August 2008, citing the primary cause as renewed tension and fighting between forces loyal to the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

Nepal was the only country measured to have seen an improvement in its ongoing conflict over the past 31 days.