The census process is “fraught with danger” and “ill-advised”, the Brussels-based think tank says in a report issued on February 12 about the exercise to gather population data throughout the nation from March 30 to April 10.

“The census process should be urgently amended to focus only on key demographic questions, postponing those which are needlessly antagonistic and divisive – on ethnicity, religion, citizenship status – to a more appropriate moment,” the ICG says.

A postponement by the government, United Nations and donors “can demonstrate that they are sensitive to the serious risks presented by the census as currently conceived, and that they are willing to respond to the deep reservations expressed by many important groups in the country”.

The ICG report acknowledges that the collection of accurate demographic data is crucial for national planning and development, but says the coming census “consisting of 41 questions, is overly complicated and fraught with danger”.

“Myanmar is one of the most diverse countries in the region, and ethnicity is a complex, contested and politically sensitive issue, in a context where ethnic communities have long believed that the government manipulates ethnic categories for political purposes,” the ICG says.

“In addition to navigating its political transition from authoritarian military rule to democratic governance, Myanmar is struggling to end decades-old, multiple and overlapping ethnic conflicts in its peripheries.

“At the same time, recent months have seen an increasingly virulent Burman-Buddhist nationalist movement lead to assaults on Muslim minority communities.

“A census which risks further increasing these tensions is ill-advised.”

The ICG says there are many flaws in the ethnic classification system being used for the census, which it says, is based on an old and much-criticized list of 135 groups produced in the 1980s.

It says this has resulted, in the case of the Chin, in too many subdivisions which have no justification on ethno-linguistic grounds or in decisions to list together groups which have separate ethnic identities.

“Several groups in Shan State such as the Palaung, Lahu and Intha are included as subdivisions of the Shan ethnicity, when they are not related in any way ethnically or linguistically,” the report says.

“A number of these groups – including ethnic political parties and ethnically based armed organisations – have issued statements highly critical of the census, some demanding a postponement and reclassification based on consultation with ethnic communities,” it says.

The classification issue involves more than ethnic identity and will have direct political ramifications, the ICG says.

“The constitution and election laws provide for a set of ethnically delineated constituencies for those groups that meet a certain population threshold, with representatives being appointed as ministers in local governments. Groups fear that if their communities are subdivided or misclassified, they may be denied that political representation. There is no possibility to report mixed ethnicity, forcing people into a single identity, to the potential disadvantage of some smaller groups,” it says.

The ICG says religion adds another layer of controversy to the census.

“Rising Burman-Buddhist nationalism in the country – typified by the “969” movement – projects a fantastical narrative that Myanmar and the majority Buddhist faith are being overrun by Muslims,” the report says.

It warns that the census could serve to unwittingly support such sentiment by providing accurate data on the size of the Muslim population, which is currently believed to be about 4 percent on the basis of a figure reported in the last census, in 1983.

“However, there are strong indications that the real figure collected then was over 10 per cent, but that a political decision was taken to publish a more acceptable figure of 4 per cent,” the ICG says.

“The results of the current census could therefore be mistakenly interpreted as providing evidence for a three-fold increase in the Muslim population in the country over the last 30 years, a potentially dangerous call to arms for extremist movements.”

The report notes that issues of ethnicity, religion and citizenship form a “particularly potent mix” in Rakhine State and could be exacerbated by the census.

“In addition to the tensions that could flare when official figures on the Muslim population in the state become known, some extremist Rakhine political actors undoubtedly fear that the census would establish a baseline Rohingya population that would make it more difficult to sustain the narrative of recent migration in the future,” the ICG says.

“Rakhine politicians are already claiming that additional populations of Bengali Muslims are now infiltrating Rakhine State in order to be included in the census count. These politicians are demanding that they be allowed to form an armed Rakhine militia to prevent such a migration,” it says.

The report observes that Myanmar is at a sensitive moment of its transition. Peace talks with armed ethnic groups are at a delicate phase and elections late in 2015 will radically transform the political landscape. The two years will be “highly volatile,” it says.

“A poorly timed census that enters into controversial areas of ethnicity and religion in an ill-conceived way will further complicate the situation,” the ICG says.

The report commends the Department of Population and other officials for their efforts during the last two years to make the technical and administrative preparations for the census.

“However, the plans have proceeded with apparently little concern at the political level – by government, the United Nations and donors – over the potential risks,” it says.

“There is still time to adjust the process by limiting the census to just the key demographic questions on age, sex and marital status – that is, the first six questions on the census form.

“This will provide the most important data without touching at this stage on the controversial issues of identity and citizenship.

“The limited technical complication of adjusting the process pales into insignificance when placed against the much larger risk – to the very fabric of Myanmar society at this delicate stage in the country’s transition – of proceeding with the current, ill-thought-out process.”