(Interview) New Delhi (Mizzima) – How likely is another nationwide uprising like the 8888 People’s Movement? Mizzima interviewed three pro-democracy leaders: National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Win Tin; National Democratic Force (NDF) party leader Khin Maung Swe; and Aung Thu Nyein of the Thai-based Vahu Development Organisation on the subject, especially in light of the democracy movements sweeping through the Middle East.

The interview covers the injustices in Burma, the threat of severe crackdowns and oppression on opposition groups, the role of the people in a mass movement, the possible role of Parliament, democratic evolution in Burma and the likelihood of a mass uprising spreading throughout the country.

Question: Do you believe a new popular uprising is likely in Burma?

Answer: Win Tin (National League for Democracy)

You can see our people are in abject poverty, even though there are exceptionally affluent families living in downtown Rangoon. Even forgetting about the people in the provinces, the people in Rangoon satellite townships such as South Dagon, North Dagon, etc, most of the people there are in poverty, in abject poverty. I see such poverty leading to a popular uprising. Nowadays there are only two classes in Burma: haves and have-nots.

Another factor is injustice in the society. Injustices of man to man, bullying, coercion and mistreatment are rampant across the country. The people are suffering and experiencing these injustices and hear about the experiences of other people through the media––so an uprising and unrest could break out at any time.

And another factor in this regard is ongoing unrest and turmoil in the Middle East countries of Egypt, Turkey, Tunisia, etc. The ripple effect of this unrest and turmoil can be felt in our county too, in this age of a global village and shrinking world. All of these factors are interconnected with each other.

I see that the butterfly affects are appearing in the country. These affects can be seen even in China, so it will have even more impact in Burma. There are many factors which could lead to a new popular uprising in our country.

Answer: Khin Maung Swe (National Democratic Force)

There is very little chance in Burma of a popular uprising. People are confused and vague on the outcome of the Parliament sessions. Moreover, the majority of our people are Buddhist so the thinking of the people is quite different from people in Muslim countries. This is one factor. People are reluctant to risk their lives and sacrifice for this movement.

And also, the unrest and uprisings in these despotic Middle East countries are the first ever in the past 30 years. There was no such unrest in these countries before. But Burma has had many periods of such unrest, and all of the uprisings were brutally suppressed by the government. The people understand this point. So even if there is another uprising here, I think the chance of such an uprising succeeding is very small.

And another point is about our neighbouring countries, which are only concerned about their own economy. They would be reluctant to encourage such an uprising in their neighbour country because it could affect their economic interests. Yes, the people are suffering here, and they are in abject poverty, but these factors are not enough yet to push them to take to the streets.

Answer: Aung Thu Nyein (Vahu Development Organisation)

I cannot say an uprising is impossible in Burma because there are many contributing factors. If you look at the current unrest and turmoil in the Middle East, you notice they are caused by people protesting a lack of human rights and dignity.

Another factor is widespread corruption in government. And the next point is the general suffering of the people and widening economic gaps in society. So you can see that all of these factors exist in Burma too.

And moreover, it is certain that almost the entire population wants to see change in this country. They are closely watching how much the ongoing Parliament sessions and debates can fulfill their aspirations. If the Parliament cannot fulfill their aspirations, they will turn to extra-parliamentary politics and activities.

Q: What do you see as the primary factors for a new uprising?

A: Win Tin

The abject poverty of the people, injustice, repression, restrictions, mistreating the people, forced labour, seizure of farmlands from the farmers, labour unrest due to non-payment of wages and unfair wages.

A: Khin Maung Swe

Those are the textbook causes. But uprisings are usually sparked or kindled by minor and unnoticed events. If such events seriously and deeply affect people’s feelings, it could cause an uprising and the people will revolt. But our people have unmatched endurance in their sufferings, maybe because of their Buddhist faith.

You know well how the people suffered when commodity prices were escalating. Those who once could have two eggs daily in their meals could not afford even a half egg in their daily meal. They had be content with one-fourth of an egg for each person, by sharing among the family members. It’s very hard to say, but I can’t say it’s impossible. An uprising could break out when the time is ripe, but the chances are low.

A: Aung Thu Nyein

Sometimes the uprisings were well-planned and well-organised but some were not. Sometimes the uprising broke out without any plan and preparation, broke out spontaneously by a coincidence of factors. You can’t speak precisely on the question.

Q: Which class in society is the most important in creating a popular uprising?

A: Win Tin

According to our Burmese experience, the primary role of such movements, especially popular uprisings, is played by  intellectuals and educated people. The students and student forces have been the main driving force in the uprisings since the 1920 university boycott movement. Students and young people have played a crucial role in our uprisings and demonstrations throughout Burma’s history. Students and youth are an intellectual class in our society. This is one factor. They are always at the forefront and spearhead these movements.

A: Khin Maung Swe

If the common or grassroots people lack all essential goods, they have nothing and no way out, when they are hopeless and helpless, then an uprising can break out. The students are part of the middle class that plays a crucial role in sparking an uprising, which can be clearly seen in our history. You can imagine the hardships faced by students now. But we also have to consider whether we really need a popular uprising or not.

A: Aung Thu Nyein

I think the prime force of the movement will be the discontented masses. I also think the middle class usually, and primarily, leads such a movement. They are called ‘opinion’ leaders. They have the vision, they can explain things to the people, they can convince others and they can lead. So the uprisings will break out when all of these factors mingle together at some critical time.

Q: What are the key factors for the success of a popular uprising?

A: Win Tin

I think the most important factor is the participation by the people. For instance, the 1988 uprising was based on people’s participation. It could not have broken out without people’s participation. You see, there were ruling party units and government-backed organizations everywhere, in every single town and ward. But regardless of the existence of these  organizations everywhere, it was only when masses of people joined the movement that the popular uprising broke out. I mean people of all classes, not only the students. It also included workers, peasants and urban people. The people walked out of their wards and joined the movement. So we can say the prime force and prime factor is the people and their participation. The uprising will be successful when the people join the movement.

A: Khin Maung Swe

You can look at the experiences in Thailand and Libya, especially in regard to the defence forces. The primary factor and prime mover is the defence forces, which side do they stand with, whether they play a neutral role, what role is played by the ruling class and do they make serious mistakes. How much do the people believe in their cause and how effectively can they lead a popular uprising. All of these are decisive factors.

A: Aung Thu Nyein

I think there are many factors in this regard. The main point and factor is the international political situation. And another factor is how united and organized are the people in such a movement. And the next factor is the leadership and what strategy they will use.

Q: What is the crucial factor for a successful transition to democracy in Burma?

A: Win Tin

The easiest way and the main factor in this regard is the destruction of the military dictatorship and the military bureaucratic rule through a popular uprising and a people’s power movement. We can say this is the main point. Then you can build a democratic system through democratic means.

In the democratisation and transition to democracy process, the most important factor is successfully removing the dictators, their dictatorship and their tyrannical rule, no matter the form of the dictatorship, a party or army or a group of people.

If we are afraid to fight against dictators, I think, the democratic struggle will be little more than marching in procession, and it cannot advance more than that stage.

A: Khin Maung Swe

Before I was imprisoned, my main aim and objective was to remove the military junta. But we could not have removed the junta. And now, it has changed its tactics by convening this Parliament and assuming control of the duly elected civilian government. So what shall we do at this stage? Shall we only try to remove the junta and dismantle their military rule or should we take part in the parliamentary movement to achieve economic democracy first and then gradually try to march along a democratic path, no matter what we think of the 2008 Constitution? All the stakeholders, all the politicians and all the political parties must choose and decide on which path to take, a painful road or a non-painful road in democratising our country.

As for Burma, we can see some progress has been made in an evolutionary way. Now the military regime has retreated. So we don’t need to topple the military regime. If a person still wants to topple the military regime, they must be living in a fantasy. We must be pragmatic. If we could not win in this past election, then we must try again in the next five years to establish a genuine people’s Parliament elected by the people in a concerted effort. Only in this way, can we get a real chance to gradually democratise the country.

A: Aung Thu Nyein

Everybody in Burma is talking about marching to democracy. Similarly, the ruling military regime also talks about democratisation by holding general elections. The opposition forces are talking about the same things in their democracy goals. So it will be better if we can find a common position and a common platform in achieving the common goals through consultation and coordination within all groups.

Even so, competitive politics in our country may exist in the future too.