Although news spread earlier this year that the Burmese Army would likely resume using ‘Four Cuts’ military offensives against many ethnic armed groups, the groups now believe that it is not likely to happen in reality.

The ‘Four Cuts’ policy was first implemented by dictator U Ne Win in 1965. ‘Four Cuts’ refers to the cutting off of supplies of food, funds, news, and new recruits to ethnic armed groups from local people. U Ne Win led the Burmese Army in practicing ‘Four Cuts’ military operations against the Burmese Communist Party and the Karen National Union (KNU) from 1965 to 1983. If the current military regime re-implements the ‘Four Cuts’ policy as a new military tactic, the result would be more uprisings in Burma, according to Padoh Saw David Thakapaw, vice-chairman of the KNU.

“We can say the Burmese Army is still using the ‘Four Cuts’ policy in Karen State. However, if the SPDC tried to exercise ‘Four Cuts’ military operations in Shan State, Wa areas, and Kachin State, the SPDC would face many problems. If they (SPDC) launch these types of military operations, they would have to use many people and funds.

“As well, there are some disagreements occurring in the Burmese Army. Because of the military, many people face many problems and many difficulties. As in 1988, there might be a people’s uprising in Burma. The Burma Army may stand with the people this time. It’s because many people, including some serving military personnel, were not satisfied with the 2010 election. That’s why, I think, this ‘Four Cuts’ military offensive is less likely to be launched,” Padoh Saw David Thakapaw said.

The Shan State Army (Shan State Progressive Party/Shan State Army) attacked three Burmese Army battalions under MOC 2 in Mong Ouk on March 13. According to the Shan State Army, the attacks were made after threaten actions made by the Burmese Army.

“The Burmese Army battalions come to cut off the road behind us. It’s not a military offensive. Currently, we don’t believe that they will launch a military offensive against us. It’s just to show off their strength,” a military officer from the Shan State Army said.

The news recently leaked that the Burmese Army has decided to cut off supplies of food and commercial items that are on their way to enemy controlled areas, to cut off roads heading to enemy areas, to cut off the communication roads linking armed groups, and to patrol areas controlled by armed groups in its most recent quarterly meeting. The Burmese Army ordered the related military commanders to implement these decisions.

“Whether the SPDC uses Four Cuts or Ten Cuts, we will respond to them. We cannot solve political problems with armed fighting. Dialogue is the only answer for peace for all of us. They have exercised this ‘Four Cuts’ policy in some areas for many decades, but they have not been successful,” Maj. James Lundong, deputy in charge of external affairs for the Kachin Independence Organization, said.

The Burmese Army committed many forms of human rights abuses, such as killing, raping, forced labor, etc., in Karen State before the 2010 election. According to the KNU, the Burmese Army continues to launch military offensives with ‘Four Cuts’ tactics against the KNU, but the army has failed to overcome and would not be able to destroy the KNU.