The ethnic armed group the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) has reiterated that it will not attack the Burmese Army first despite war clouds looming and a possibility of renewed civil war in Kachin State, Northern Burma. It will wait for the junta’s forces to launch a military offensive first, an armed group spokesman said.

James Lum Dau the Assistant Foreign Relations in-charge of KIO based in Bangkok, Thailand, told Kachin News Group that war with the junta depends absolutely on the decision of the regime. There will be no first strike by the KIO’s armed wing, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).

“Whether there will be a clash between us depends totally on its (junta’s) plans. It is really difficult to guess or say from our side that there will be renewed clashes after the prolonged ceasefire between the two sides,” said James Lum Dau.

The Burmese junta cannot ignore the Chinese government’s desire that it wants stability in Burma as well as in the border areas. However the junta seems to be itching to launch an offensive against KIO.

Reinforcements by the junta have been increasing since last month in the frontier areas of Kachin State. It is dispatching more troops and weapons. It is an indication that the junta does not care about China’s stand. At the same time it cannot afford to offend its giant neighbour, said Lum Dau.

“It (junta) is making a show of its military might by reinforcing its troops and supplying heavy weaponry. The idea is to scare us with the hope we will surrender to them easily and at the earliest,” James Lum Dau added.

The relationship between the junta and the KIO, following the breakdown of the ceasefire, soured since last September after KIO officially rejected junta’s proposal to transform to the Border Guard Force (BGF) under Burmese Army control.

The junta labeled KIO as an ‘insurgent group’ for the first time since the ceasefire agreement on 1994. It started blocking border trade and prevented KIO members from entering their controlled areas. It also ordered shutting down of all KIO liaison offices in Burma.

Both sides are gearing up for a confrontation. Civilian Kachins in KIO controlled areas are also apprehensive of a possible war and are collecting food and others essentials and hiding them in the forest areas, said a resident of Manmaw (Bhamo) the second largest city of the State.

Civilians in the upper reaches of Manje and N’mawk Township close to KIA Brigade No.3 and in Namlim Pa, Mung Hkawng and Mung Ding Pa villages are storing food and material in the forests.

Last week, Brig-Gen Kyaw Zaw, the Burmese junta’s commander of Northeastern Regional Command (Ya Ma Kha) based in Lashio in Shan State visited Northern Shan State areas and met people’s militia groups from Mongkoe and Hpawng Seng village and asked them to block routes between KIA’s Brigade No. 4 based in Loikang, and KIA in Kachin State.

He was quoted as saying that the KIO’s policy of not starting to shoot until junta shoots first, is not right because “we are not going to invade their place” but the fact is that the Burmese Army is already intruding into our homes, he added.

Zahkung Di La representative of the Kachin National Organization (KNO) in exile said, “We cannot deal as government to government and also should not depend on help from the international community. It will only mean more harm to our people.”

The KIO is the chair of the Federal Army which was formed on November 5 on the Thai-Burma border areas by KIO, Karen National Union (KNU), New Mon State Party (NMSP), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and the Chin National Front (CNF).

The political and military alliance, which comprises the federal army, has called for the development of a ‘Genuine Federal Political System in Burma’.

James Lum Dau said the junta has set a trap and they want KIO to start a war so that they can reason and convince the international community and cover their war crimes against the ethnic minority.

KIO’s Deputy Foreign Minister said “If we attack then they will fight us and say they are defending the security and stability of the country because insurgents are destabilizing the nation.”

He said the junta plans to go to war against all ethnic armed groups. If it wins then it will continue as it is doing. If not, the junta may think of peace talks again.