Taing Taw Mon, political analyst: The undemocratic results of the Burmese national elections have quickly introduced Burma to a multitude of problems that cannot be easily solved. Those include: civil war, the desire for self-determination by ethnic-minorities, military rule, and an undemocratic approach to governance, as well as an increase in the number of refugees.

Civil war, which has turned the country from one of the richest in Southeast Asia to the poorest in the last five decades, reoccurred during armed conflict between an ethnic Karen armed group and the Burmese military at two border checkpoints on the Thai-Burma border, even as the ballots were being counted after the November 7th vote.

The people living in the areas of conflict have nowhere to go inside their country, so they choose neighboring Thailand, which is already serving as a haven for hundreds of thousands of Burmese refugees. This is overloading Thailand’s capacity to assist refugees, and burdening the international community. Refugee camps in Thailand emerged in 1988 after the student-led democracy uprising. They are still necessary more than twenty years later.

From the an ethnic minority point of view, Burma’s problem is a lack of power sharing between the majority Burman population and the ethnic minority groups. A genuine federation, with a new constitution based on democratic principles and equal rights for minorities, can bridge the gap between these two sides. The current constitution, used to create the unfair election laws used by the regime to hobble the opposition during the recent election, guarantees twenty-five percent of the parliamentary seats to the military. This is an extra advantage for the Burmese government, which is seen as completely unacceptable by the majority of the ethnic minority groups.

Most ethnic minority groups have drafted their own state constitutions, which focus on a strong state. The Mon State constitution, for example, was drafted and passed at the Mon National Conference, an annual conference held in the cease fire zone, which is attended by many grass roots organizations from within Burma.  

The most reasonable way to create a democracy in Burma is embodied in the UN’s call for a tri-partite dialogue among ethnic groups, the military government and the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi. However, the military regime has its own agenda, outlined in its “road map to democracy”, which basically excluded all political parties with ethnic representatives from the election.

Civil war and the demand for ethnic self determination are interlinked. The 2008 constitution produced a new design for the country’s flag- it has only one big star, representing the Burman people and excluding the ethnic minorities. The dream of the regime is to form one military unit, in which all the armed ethnic groups must participate. Most of these armed ethnic groups refused to endorse the constitution and rejected the military’s demand to become part of a Border Guard Force, under Burmese military control.

The Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), which was long seen as an ally to the Burmese military, has now opposed the country’s election and begun a civil war by attacking government troops at Myawaddy and then Three Pagoda Pass. Thousands of people were forced to flee the fighting by escaping to Thailand. Though many have returned home by now, the fighting has instilled fear in the citizens of Burma.

The two countries in Asia which welcomed the military-sponsored election were China and Vietnam, but most democratic countries throughout the world have condemned the election as fraudulent and unfair.

In the week before the election, six armed ethnic groups met in Northern Thailand and formed a federal military alliance. They also issued a joint declaration calling for convening the second Panglong Conference, which is widely welcomed by the people who want to build the country into a federal union. The Panglong Agreement, or federal union, was first formed by a well respected Burmese leader, General Aung San, (Aung San Suu Kyi’s father), and ethnic leaders in Panglong, Shan State, on the eve of the country’s independence in 1948.

In May and June, the armed Kachin ethnic minority group told the military junta that it will agree to become a Border Guard Force if the country held a second Panglong Conference. The New Mon State Party General Secretary, Nai Hongsar, also recently told the Independent Mon News Agency he welcomes efforts of the country’s political leaders from the various ethnic groups and pro-democracy groups to convene the second Panglong Conference. This looks currently to be the one solution that can produce calm inside Burma and progress towards democracy.