The Burmese army is preparing two training centers in Mon State for ethnic armed groups being transformed into government “Border Guard Forces” (BGF). Two ethnic Karen ceasefire groups are likely to be trained there as the junta steps up pressure on other area groups prior to the 2010 election.

In April, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) junta announced that armed ethnic ceasefire groups would no longer be permitted to exist as independent forces, as many have since agreeing to put fighting on hold in the 1990’s. Instead, they must either disarm or integrate themselves into the SPDC army as BGF battalions.

BGF battalions will receive training and support, including weapons, from the SPDC army. BGF battalions must also drop their use of ethnic nationality based names, and accept the presence of soldiers and officers from the regular SPDC army as part of their command structure.

Two training centers for BGF battalions are to be located in Thanbyuzayat Township, Mon State; one is to be at the No. 4 Military Training Center near Waekalee village and the other to be freshly built near Yethagon village, on the Thanbyuzayat to Three Pagodas Pass motor road. According to Bangkok based media group Kitpyaing, orders issued by the SPDC Southeast Command, which controls the area, directed training centers for BGF battalions to be prepared by October 2009.

“Before, the government planned to hold the trainings in May 2009. But [my source] said the trainings were moved to September,” a source in the Karen National Union (KNU) who maintains close contact with a group becoming a BGF told IMNA. “Soldiers from sergeant to private have to attend 90 days of training; warrant officers to battalion commanders have to attend the training for 45 days.”

The question of ethnic cease-fire groups transforming themselves into government BGF battalions is a delicate one, with groups negotiating what some perceive as a choice between renewed armed conflict or loss of control and potential domination by the SPDC. Consequently, the majority of the country’s largest groups have thus far dodged the question: for most, negotiations are ongoing.

In the area near the new training centers, however, the picture is beginning to clear slightly. At least one ethnic Karen group recently agreed to undergo training at the new BGF training centers in Thanbyuzayat; last week, IMNA reported that the Karen Peace Force (KPF), which split from the KNU in 1997, would be forming at least one BGF battalion. The group is currently made up of 500 troops; each BGF battalion must include 326.

“In order to change the Karen Peace Force into a Border Guard Force…and give it military training and administration, SPDC authorities are now building a new training center,” explained a source close to the group.

A second ethnic Karen group, the larger Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), meanwhile, is also expected to form BGF battalions, though there has not been an official announcement. An article released by the Human Rights Foundation of Monland (HURFOM) earlier today, however, reports that this group is now forcibly conscripting men so that its ranks are sufficiently full to field multiple BGF battalions.

“After the DKBA leader met with the General That Naing Win [in late April], they started to recruit and collect the new soldiers for their battalions,” HURFOM quoted a KNU District-level Chairman. The DKBA split from the KNU in 1994. “That Naing Win [who heads up the SPDC Southeast Command] announced that 326 privates must join the battalion. If they don’t have that amount [of troops available]… they don’t want to destroy the old battalion and don’t want to combine with KPF [or] for the two battalions to become one; therefore, they forced the villagers to join the military service to achieve the necessary number.”

According to HURFOM, the conscription is being carried about by DKBA Battalion No. 999, headed by Commander Chit Thu. Irrawaddy News, meanwhile, reported in January that Commander Chit Thu had already told soldiers of the DKBA’s planned transformation into BGF battalions during Independence Day celebrations.

The status of a third Karen cease-fire group, the KNU/Karen National Liberation Peace Council (KPC), has yet to be confirmed. The group, which was formed by Htein Maung after splitting from the KNU in 2007, received permission to operate an “economic zone” near Three Pagodas Pass in February, and opened an official office in the border town by the end of the following month. Whether this means it will transform into a BGF has not been confirmed by IMNA, though the Irrawaddy reported it to be so in February.

The area’s largest question mark remains the New Mon State Party (NMSP), whose armed wing the Mon National Liberation Army (MNLA) currently fields 6 battalions. Though it announced it would not be participating in the 2010 elections following a large Party Congress in January, its position on becoming a border guard force is less clear. In an interview with IMNA in January, party spokesman Nai Oung Mange skirted the question, saying the NMSP would “consider the issue” and “ask for opinions from monks, Mon organizations and also Mon people” if pressured to transform the MNLA.

Other party higher ups including party Chairman Nai Hongsa and Central Executive Committee member Nai Shwe Thein have been more definitive in asserting that the MNLA would not be changing into a BGF; the former promised as much in an interview with the BBC in January, while the latter went so far as to say the ceasefire would not survive an attempt by the SPDC to absorb the MNLA.

Such positions were announced prior to any official pressure from the SPDC over the issue, however, and according to Nai Oung Mange the SPDC has yet to issue a BGF order regarding the MNLA. “The first time General Ye Myint came and meet with us, he did not order us to change our party into a Border Guard Force,” Nai Shwe Thein told IMNA yesterday. “I am sure, they will come and tell us to make our party as a border guard, but I am not sure about when.” Lt. Gen. Ye Myint, meanwhile, canceled a recent meeting between government and NMSP officials at the end of April.

Should the NMSP refuse to form BGF battalions, the SPDC will likely look to other, less powerful Mon groups to form BGF battalions. A highly ranked retired MNLA officer who spoke with IMNA today pointed to the Mon Peace and Defence Force (MPDF), a small group led by Nai Ong Chan, who retired from the party nearly a decade ago and briefly allied with Nai Aung Naing, then top MNLA general, who split from the party in 2008.

The MPDF has recently been making waves, publicly carrying firearms in places they are normally prohibited – including Moulmein, Mon State’s capital city. According to Kaowao News, the group has opened an official office in the city and is conducting gambling operations – all with the backing of the SPDC Military Affairs Security.

In April, MPDF members got into an armed altercation with NMSP officials over taxation of a lucrative ox fight in Kyaikmayaw Township that resulted in shots fired and a truck accident. Soon after, 3 MPDF members were arrested for the assassination of respected party member Dr. Nai Min Naung in Mudon Township. An assassination attempt on a second NMSP member in Mudon failed in May. Though no group members have been officially arrested or accused, NMSP members widely believe the attempt to be the work of the MPDF.

It is unlikely that the Nai Ong Chan group could field enough soldiers to form a BGF battalion; the number of Nai Ong Chan followers is unknown, though one NMSP source in an area frequented by group members estimated them to number just over 10.

Another open question regards the Mon Peace Group – Chaung Chi (MPG-CC), which split from the NMSP in 1997. The group broke an extended period of relative quiet by joining with the SPDC army to launch an attack on the Karen National Union’s Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) in Mergui during early April. According to another NMSP source, however, even with support from a recent SPDC-backed recruiting push the MPG-CC numbers just 40 or 50 soldiers.