The Burmese junta does not want to open a new battlefront with the New Mon State Party (NMSP) while the junta is fighting with the Karen National Union (KNU) even though the ceasefire between the Burmese government and NMSP ended eight months ago according to Mon leaders.

NMSP secretary, Nai Hong Sar, said, “They will fight us one day, but not now because they are fighting with the Karen [KNU].”

He added, that “If they fight us, they have to open two battlefronts. They do not want to do this.”

Many people in Mon State have expressed doubts as to why the junta is not using force against the NMSP and still allowing members of the NMSP to travel inside the country in Mon State after the NMSP refused to become part of the Burmese government-run Border Guard Forces (BGF) in September.

Nai Kao Rot, former deputy army chief of the Mon National Liberation Army (MNLA), said, “They [the junta] want to form a new government peacefully in Naypyidaw. This is why they have not used force on the NMSP.”

“Once they form the new government, though, they may use force against the NMSP,” he added.

Some observers of the situation in Mon state believe that the new government will resume political talks again with the NMSP in the future seeing as the junta still allows the NMSP offices to remain open in Moulmein, Thanbyuzayart, Ye, and Three Pagodas Pass.

NMSP leaders have commented that once the new government forms, it will request peace talks or disarmament, which will ultimately lead to the use of force.

Nai Rot Sa, the vice chairman of the NMSP added, “If we have more political talks with them [the junta], we will not go alone. We will go as one group from our ethnic alliances to present together at the peace talks.”

The NMSP is part of an alliance of a dozen ethnic groups called the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC, a Union of Burma), which was established in February. The UNFC includes ethnic groups with major armies such as the Kachin Independence Organization, the Karen National Union (KNU), the Karenni National Progressive Party, the NMSP, and the Shan State Army–North.

NMSP leaders have repeatedly stated that if a war begins with the junta, it will use its forces to fight in guerrilla-style warfare against the junta’s troops.

The NMSP signed a cease-fire agreement with the Burmese military junta in 1995 and the NMSP’s armed wing, the MNLA, has around 1,000 soldiers, of which they plan to use 200 for guerrilla-style fighting.

After 15 years of ceasefire, the junta’s troops now have about 30 battalions in Mon State. Before the ceasefire, there were around 10 battalions.

Last week, the NMSP held a meeting with 80 former senior members of the MNLA at NMSP headquarters in Bee Ree, Ye Township, Mon State, discussing how former members can help if the party begins to fight with junta troops in the future.

When the ceasefire agreement ended, the NMSP began to request the return of former members to join a possible future fight with the junta. Sources close to the NMSP have reported that 100 former troops have rejoined the party.

During the 15 years of the ceasefire, many troops from the NMSP resigned because fighting with the junta stopped. At the beginning of the ceasefire, the NMSP had 3,500 troops.

Party leaders have expressed difficulty in maintaining the number of troops, especially in the midst of economic hardships and the resulting migration of Mon people into Thailand for better work opportunities.