As the Myanmar military junta reaches out to Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO) for dialogue with a tentative promise of peace it is becoming increasingly clear that the military is seeking to divide and rule in order to maintain power.
Judging by the reporting on the visits to Naypyidaw by the individual EAO leaders over the last couple of weeks, there is a double-prong strategy being pursued by the junta that allows them to maintain the upper hand.
First of all, the junta is meeting with the leaders of the EAOs willing to talk on an individual basis, rather than having a group meeting. Any semblance of the collective power of EAOs is lost under such a scenario.
Secondly, the junta meeting leaders individually allows the junta to pander to the needs or desires of the individual EAO.
These “private talks” allows both sides – the junta and the EAO – to focus on their own needs. And the fact that the talks are private allows both sides to have control over the messages they release to the public.
All of this is concern to the Myanmar people pursuing the Spring Revolution that aims to oust the illegal military junta, including the National Unity Government (NUG) and the People’s Defence Forces (PDF). The NUG said in a statement on 1 June that they would not recognize the junta-EAO talks as the junta was an “illegal” and “terrorist” organization.
Naturally, the NUG and PDFs want the EAOs to play ball with them - not ally themselves with the Myanmar junta or remain neutral.
But only a relatively small percentage of the EAOs – such as the Karen National Union (KNU) –appear willing to play ball, helping to train and host PDFs and some NUG players.
Others, such as the United Wa State Army (UWSA), may say publicly that they have called on the junta to pursue peace, but essentially they seek to maintain the status quo.
In essence, this is the result of decades of stand-off between the Bamar military and semi-civilian government and the armed ethnic fighters in the hills. The NUG may be seeking to woo the EAOs to their side but there appears to be a high level of distrust in the minds of the ethnic leaders. Dozens of “peace conferences” over the years have done little to dispel this.
What all this means is the call for peace by the Myanmar junta is largely a smokescreen to hide their intent to continue to militarily crack down on any signs of resistance in the country – from the PDF fighters, to the street protesters, to the angry Facebook users censured for posting an anti-junta post.
Survival matters to the EAOs. But maintenance of the status quo means those pursuing the Spring Revolution face a long, bitter struggle.
