The Burmese military junta, through their local commanders in Shan State East, have laid down different conditions for two different Wa factions on the Thai-Burma border, according to Thai and Shan sources.

To the former KMT (Kuomintang) faction, led by Wei Xuegang, Commander of the United Wa State Army (UWSA)’s 171st Military Region, who is in effective control of three of the five brigades there, namely: 772nd, 775th and 778th, the options are:

• Surrender
• Transform to pro-junta militia
• Launch military operations against the anti-Naypyitaw Shan State Army (SSA) South

To the former Communist Party of Burma (CPB) faction, led by supreme leader Bao Youxiang, who has two brigades along the Thai-Burma border, namely: the 248th (Hoyawd) and 518th (Mongyawn), the options are somewhat divergent:

• Surrender
• Transform to pro-junta militia
• Withdraw to the Sino-Burma border where a “Wa Self-Administered Division” has been designated by the 2008 Constitution

As for the main body of the UWSA that is based on the Sino-Burma border, the reported options are ‘Surrender or Become a part of the Burmese Army’.

“If Wei decides to leave the UWSA and accepts any options offered by the junta, it will severely weaken the remaining Wa forces,” said a Shan businessman close to the Wa. “They will be forced to stand against the Burmese Army without a strong economic base.”

The Wa’s main base east of the Salween and between Namting in the north and Namkha in the south has been under siege since the New Year began.

So far the Wa has refused to consider the terms offered by the Burmese Army.

The only problem appears to be that neither side is ready to start a war. “The junta does not dare to pressure them (the ceasefire armies) to the point of breaking the ceasefire agreements, as it will have severe repercussions,” Aung Kyaw Zaw, an analyst based on the Sino-Burma border, told Mizzima News yesterday.

The likely repercussions, said a Thai security official, on condition of anonymity, would be:

• Incurring China’s displeasure
• The Wa joining hands with the SSA South  
• Other dissident groups flocking to the UWSA-SSA South alliance, among others

“The only hope therefore is that the former KMT faction that has made huge investments in military-ruled Burma will not be able to stand the strain and choose an easy and safe way out,” he ventured.

The UWSA signed a ceasefire agreement with Burma’s ruling military council in 1989 following its overthrow of the Communist leadership. The 20th anniversary of the mutiny is due to be celebrated on 17 April.

The Kokang ceasefire group Myanmar Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) led by Peng Jiasheng is also holding its 20th anniversary celebrations, reported sources from the north, although the details are yet to be disclosed. The Kokang rebellion against the CPB on 12 March 1989 had sparked off a series of mutinies by other armed groups.