In Sunday’s election, the Pheu Thai party led by Yingluck Shinawatra won 265 seats, easily defeating Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrat Party by 106 seats, according to unofficial results. Recently, Yingluck announced that she would form a new five-party coalition government that will control about 299 parliamentary seats out of a total of 500 seats.

The slogan of the party led by Yingluck, the sister of fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is: “Thaksin Thinks, Pheu Thai Acts.” If the Pheu Thai party follows the Burma policy carried out by the ex-prime minister, the Burmese activists in Thailand could be in a tight corner, said Pa-O National Liberation Organization chairman Colonel Khun Okkar.

“During Thaksin’s term, Thailand controlled our political activities because he wanted to set up economic zones along Thai-Burmese border,” Colonel Khun Okkar told Mizzima.

He said that Burmese activists have been closer to the Democratic Party, and they could rely on the Democrats to strongly support human rights.

Under the Thaksin government, Thailand cultivated economic relationships with the Burmese government, and currently, the Italian-Thai Company has plans to start the Dawei Development Project in 2012 to develop a deep-sea port and transportation corridor to serve Thailand’s energy and other interests.

Kavi Chongkittavron, the assistant group editor of Nation Multimedia Group, the publisher of the Nation English-language newspaper, said that the new Thai government would follow ex-prime minister Thaksin’s policy and probably have a closer relationship with the new Burmese government.

“She [Yingluck] said that she was a clone of Thaksin; so she will follow Thaksin’s policy,” said Kavi Chongkittavron. “Possibly, they [new Thai government] will grow closer to Naypyitaw. The Burmese opposition in Thaland should be careful because if you have a government that closer to Naypyitaw, it means that will impact the exile community inside Thailand,” Kavi Chongkittavron told Mizzima.

On the other hand, Aung Thu Nyein, a Burmese political analyst in Thailand, said that the new Thai government would have to work for national reconciliation and prepare to celebrate the King’s 84th birthday, so affairs regarding Burmese activists in Thailand would not be given immediate priority. But, he added, “In the long run, the closer they are to the Burmese government, the more they will be strict with the Burmese opposition in Thailand.”

The Thai-based Democratic Party for New Society chairman Aung Moe Zaw said he hoped that the new Thai government would help in establishing democracy in Burma.

“For instance, during ex-prime minister Thaksin’s government’s term, he hosted a “Bangkok Process” to attempt a reconciliation between opposite groups in Burma,” Aung Moe Zaw told Mizzima. During 2003-2004, Thaksin hosted a meeting to discuss Burmese affairs attended by Singapore, Australia, Austria, Italy, Germany, France, Japan, China and India in Bangkok. Burma failed to attend a second meeting and the process was stopped.

Kraisak Choonhavan, a current Democrat (Thai) MP and chairman of the Asean Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus, said that the new Thai government would give first priority to the welfare of business corporations and companies, and their policy would not favour the Burmese people.

“This government is very dangerous to Burma, because they listen to corporate interest and sometime they refuse to even listen to news and information, on how to cooperate with local people in Burma, like building the dam on the Salween River,” said Kraisak. “The Yadana pipe-line to Thailand displaced a lot of people in Burma. Thaksin, in the last government, wanted to build the seaport project in Dawei. So, this new government will be same as Thaksin.”

A new Thai government led by Yingluck could be stronger than the previous Thaksin government and the Abhisit government, Kraisak said. He said the Burmese opposition would be in a different situation, but the new Thai government would not totally favour the Burmese government over the Burmese people.