The dream of over one million people to exercise their democratic rights and have their votes counted in conflict-plagued Arakan (Rakhine), has been rekindled by several factors putting pressure on the NLD government to arrange by-elections before the end of December.

U Khaing Myo Aung, a local from Nyaungchaung IDP camp in Myaebone Township said: “We want to have these elections. The IDPs and many people face difficulties if there are no candidates who will can address their problems and listen to their voices.”

The fighting in Rakhine State between the Tatmadaw (government troops) and the ethnic-based AA (the Arakan Army) had significantly declined a few days before the 2020 General Elections.  The AA has issued a statement saying that the top leaders from the Tatmadaw and the AA held an online talk on the safe and swift transport of foods and medicine to the needy villages, and the holding of by-elections. Now all fighting has stopped, dialogue and peace negotiations have taken over.

The Union Election Commission (UEC) had canceled the election in some constituencies in Kachin, Karen, Mon, Shan, Arakan, Chin and Bago, citing they were “not a position to hold the free and fair elections due to security reasons.” However many ethnic parties accused UEC of bias in adding a number of reportedly safe constituencies to its list of election cancellations.

The majority of canceled constituencies were located in Arakan State. The UEC canceled the elections in nine townships of 17 townships in Arakan State and wards and village-tracts in four other townships.

The skipped townships where the fighting was at one time taking place between the Tatmadaw and the AA, are Ponnagyun, Yathaedaung, Buthedaung, Kyauktaw, Minbya, Myaebon and MraukU. In addition the UEC canceled the elections in Pauktaw and Maungdaw Townships where there was no fighting.

 

The by-elections can be held

About four days after the general election the AA issued a statement on November 12, urging the NLD-led government and Tatmadaw to hold by-elections before 31st December in the cancelled constituencies in Arakan State. The Tatmadaw issued a statement on the same day, welcoming the AA’s statement saying it would coordinate the holding of by-elections in the skipped areas.

Now both armies- Burmese army and the AA are supporting the holding of these elections are on board, the pressure is on the UEC and the NLD government to make the necessary arrangements.

On November 28, a delegation led by Mr. Yohei SASAKAWA, Special Envoy of Japanese Government for National Reconciliation in Myanmar, visited Buthedaung and Kyauktaw Townships in Arakan State. The special envoy is serving as a mediator between the Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army (AA).

U Than Soe Naing, the political analyst said: “I think the election is likely to take place before the end of December, as there are discussions between the Tatmadaw and the AA... The UEC will support it if the NLD-led government implements it.”

When the fighting stopped  

The amount of fighting between the Tatmadaw and the AA had significantly declined a few days before the 2020 General Elections. Since the election the fighting has stopped. The AA issued a statement, saying that the top leaders from the Tatmadaw and the AA held an online talk on the safe and swift transport of foods and medicine to the needy villages, and the holding of by-elections.

Four days after the general election, the AA issued a statement on November 12, urging the NLD-led government and Tatmadaw to hold by-elections before 31st December in the cancelled constituencies in Arakan State. The Tatmadaw issued a statement on the same day, welcoming the AA’s statement. The Tatmadaw said it would coordinate the holding of by-elections in the skipped areas.

 

The by-elections can be held

U Than Soe Naing, the political analyst said: “I think the election is likely to take place before the end of December as there are discussions between the Tatmadaw and the AA. The NLD-led government is to support the discussion and coordination between the Tatmadaw and the AA via Mr. SASAKAWA. The UEC will support it if the NLD-led government implements it.”

The Japanese special envoy and his party visited the canceled townships and met locals there. He held a press conference on his tour. At the conference, Mr. Yohei SASAKAWA told locals he supported the holding of bye-elections. It is ready to hold elections in the canceled townships as the skipped townships are safe.

On December 2, Mr. Yohei SASAKAWA held a discussion with the chair of the Union Election Commission (UEC) on the by-elections in Arakan State. He told the media that he himself witnessed the situations in Arakan State. I requested the UEC to hold the election in Arakan State. But the UEC did not make any reply.

Will the UEC and the NLD drag their feet on restoring the election rights of 1.2 million people? There is widespread criticism that the NLD-led government and the UEC are not fully committed to holding these by-elections, prompting analyst U Than Soe Naing to comment that this is because “it is likely as the NLD anticipates they would lose most of the by-election seats to ethnic Rakhine parties.”

The analyst added “As an independent organization, the UEC should make all-out efforts to hold the elections without looking at the face of the NLD-led government,”

Apart from the political issues, there are also legal complexities to be considered as the ruling NLD government is quick to point out.

Dr. Myo Nyunt, Spokesperson of the NLD stated “The law covers the general elections and by-elections. The existing Election Law does not cover these related-elections (that is by-elections arising from disenfranchisement during an election.). We cannot define the law as we want. Discussions between the AA, Tatmadaw, the UEC and the NRPC are required if we want to hold the related elections. But if necessary the law can be amended in parliament.”

The NLD spokesman added “Although the NLD welcomes the talks between the Tatmadaw and the AA in principle, it is necessary for the inclusiveness of all parties to achieve effective procedures (for the holding of special by-elections).

 

Holding by-elections relies on organizations

The election can be held before the start of the third round of parliamentary session according to Maung Nyar Na, a political writer. He reviewed that the holding of elections depends on the four bodies: UEC, the government, the Tatmadaw and the EAOs.

Given that most elections monitors both local and international have all criticized the UEC’s handling of voter-exclusions with over 1.2 million voters denied participation in the election, the Myanmar government should be doing everything in its power to restore voters rights in Arakan State and also other ethnic states. Many ethnic voters still need to be convinced as to whether it was a free and fair election.