More than 1.2 out of over 1.6 million voters were deprived of their votes in the November Election in Arakan State, due to the cancellation of elections in nine townships and 15 wards and 130 village-tracts in four townships of Arakan State.
This has weakened the representation of the Arakan National Party (ANP) in the Arakan State parliament where its majority of MPs has been reduced from 22 members to seven with NLD coming in with 4.
Only 25% of eligible Arakanese voters were able to cast their vote after the Union Election Commission (UEC) ruled out any election for nine townships reducing the actual voters to 400,000. The UEC also canceled the elections partly in 15 wards and 130 village-tracts in Ann, Kyaukphyu, Taunggup and Sittwe Townships.
In spite of UEC decisions, the ANP still secured a strong majority over the NLD
According to the 2020 General Election results, the Arakan National Party (ANP) secured 15 seats in Arakan State—four for the lower house, four for the upper house and seven for Arakan State parliament. The Arakan Front Party (AFP) secured three seats—one for the upper house and two for the Arakan State parliament.
The ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) secured eight seats—two for the lower house, one for the upper house, four for the Arakan State parliament and one for Chin ethnic affairs minister. The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won two seats—one for the lower house and the Arakan State parliament.
The NLD loses its hardcore constituencies
In the 2020 General Elections, the NLD secured enough seats required to form a new government. But it lost major constituencies in Taunggup and Manaung Townships. The strong Rakhine distrust and disappointment with the NLD by the massive vote for the ANP soundly defeated the ruling NLD in all seats for the three parliaments.
Dr. Myo Nyunt, Spokesperson of the NLD claimed “the loss of hardcore constituencies is linked to the arrest of three candidates from the NLD by the AA, and the AA’s influence over the election. Unlike other political parties, our party was unable to do election campaigns there.”
The Arakan State parliament
While NLD has been overall the loser in Arakan, but they record improved in Gwa and Thandwe Townships. The NLD secured the seats in these townships, defeating the Arakanese parties.
It is now unclear as to how the ANP will form a new government in the state parliament.
There were 47 lawmakers in the previous second Arakan State parliament—35 lawmakers (22 from the ANP, nine from the NLD, three from the USDP and one independent lawmaker) and 12 from the army (25 percent).
Since the 2020 election, there will be 19 lawmakers in the third Arakan State parliament—14 elected candidates – seven from the ANP -4 from NLD and five from the army.
The prospect of the ANP seeking backing from the unelected army members,
Under this new line-up, “the checks and balance of the Arakan State parliament over the government will be weaker” according to U Tha Tun Hla, Chair of the ANP which secured the majority of seats in Arakan State.
The ANP chairman added “In order to control the Arakan State government, the ANP is preparing to cooperate with the Tatmadaw rather than its former alliance with the AFP. It is difficult to estimate how the new State government will be formed.
“In the past, we could impeach the government in Arakan Parliament thanks to strong cooperation with the Tatmadaw. Without the Tatmadaw, we cannot impeach the government. It is difficult to estimate how the new State government is formed,” he added.
To sum up, the ANP is in a tight corner when it comes to their capacity to lead the Arakan parliament and hold the Arakan State government accountable. The ANP is likely to take the path of cooperation with the Tatmadaw. That’s why the Tatmadaw are likely to play a pivotal role in the Arakan parliament.
