Thant Myint-U — Myanmar, like the entire world, is facing not only an unprecedented health crisis, but an unprecedented economic crisis as well.
Myanmar's economy has already been severely hit by disruptions in global trade and tourism. Thousands of businesses and hundreds of thousands of people - including migrant workers - are already suffering the consequences. With the spread of the coronavirus and necessary lockdowns the situation could become ten times worse.
We can take strong measures to stop the spread of the virus and at the same time not only save the economy but strengthen it for the future.
An unprecedented challenge requires unprecedented action. Around the world governments have launched massive stimulus packages and other measures to rescue their economies and help ordinary people. The size of stimulus packages have been as much as 10-15% of the country's GDP (e.g. in the US, Australia). In Thailand it's about 4%.
I think Myanmar should consider a similar scale of government action: a stimulus package of at least 2-3% of GDP or around $1.5 - $2 billion.
The money could come from a mix of unspent funds, borrowing from Central Bank, and funds from the International Financial Institutions. This is not a time to worry about deficits and be fiscally conservative. All around the world, governments are spending whatever it takes to meet this massive crisis.
The funds should be used not only to rescue businesses but also to directly help ordinary people, including and in particular poor and working families. As I've suggested before this could be through direct cash transfers. For poor people losing their jobs now, even $100 a month could make all the difference.
We should think especially of migrant workers returning from Thailand, who have done so much to keep this economy going, and whose past income has helped millions of families around the country.
In addition to the stimulus package, the government should of course spend as much as needed to boost medical capacity and ensure equitable access to healthcare.
The stimulus package is a way of meeting this crisis. But it should also be about the future. Crisis means opportunity as well. Done right, spending now can lay the foundations for a stronger welfare state - with better healthcare and social security for all people. It can also lay the foundations for a strong development partnership between government and business. When this crisis is over, Myanmar should emerge more ready to compete in the global economy, and more ready to create an economy that's good for all its citizens.
