Ethnic ceasefire groups in the north of Burma have agreed to a common strategy in the face of any concerted Burmese Army offensives, according to sources within the groups. The deal comes in the wake of the junta’s third attack against one of the armed militias in Shan State, last month.  

The recent spate of hostilities is a result of the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N) ceasefire group’s continued rejection of the Burmese regime’s Border Guard Force (BGF) proposal, which requires them to surrender their arms and accept being commanded by junta officers.  

The United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), among other armed ceasefire groups active in the state, have also rejected the BGF initiative.  

With agreement on the BGF issue appearing  less likely as time passes, the Burmese regime has started to reinforce its troops along the ceasefire group fronts. In response, the UWSA, NDAA, SSA-N 1st Brigade and the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) have entered a military alliance.   

Coalition members agree to assist each another if the Burmese Army attacks one of its members, a move prompted by the fresh memory of the extinction of the Kokang group, which in August last year faced a three-day crackdown by the army after it refused to accept the BGF proposal.   

Observers speculate recent Burmese Army aggression against ethnic forces is partially designed to assess the reaction and capacity of the ceasefire groups.   

With the passing of the September 1 deadline for compliance on the matter of transforming their armies into a BGF, the junta has labeled any groups remaining outside the framework “unlawful” associations.    

Nonetheless, the SSA-N, UWSA and NDAA assert they will retain their arms and control of their respective territories, and add that any further dialogue will have to wait until a new government is formed following Burma’s national elections on November 7.   

As a result of the ethnic ceasefire groups barring polling booths in regions under their control, the Burmese junta’s electoral watchdog, the Union Election Commission, announced on September 16 that 12 townships in Shan State under the control of the UWSA and NDAA were to be excluded from voting.