March 10 has gone by without reports of either side, the Burmese Army or the anti-Border Guard Force ceasefire armies, resuming peaceful overtures to each other, according to sources from Shan State.
March 10 was the fourth and latest deadline set by Naypyitaw. According to Chinese officials, another negative response to the Border Guard Force (BGF) proposal would lead to open war and declaration of the ceasefire groups as illegal organizations by March 15.
“The situation is grim,” said a source close to the Wa leadership in Panghsang, opposite China’s Menglien.
On the Burmese Army’s side, one more light infantry division (LID), the 77th based in Pegu, since last week has been moving into Shan State North. There are already three LIDs around the United Wa State Army (UWSA) controlled territory on the Sino-Burma border: 33rd (Sagaing), 55th (Kalaw) and 99th (Meikhtila).
In Mongkhark and Mongyang, facing UWSA troops in Mongpawk, south of Panghsang, Burmese officers have also been busy giving pep talk to their troops. “Nothing can stop us from restoring Mongpawk (to Mongyang township),” one officer in Mongyang was reported as saying.
The Burmese Army cannot be faulted for its morale-boosting activities. In Mongpawk, where the UWSA’s 468th Division is located, officers are reportedly exhorting the people to be prepared for the worst. “We are ready to repel the enemies, whether they are coming by land or by air,” one officer told villagers in Mongphen, a sub-township of Mongpawk.
Since March 2, all units have been placed on the highest alert. “Before March 2, we were told not to fire unless attacked,” said the source. “But now we are to shoot once the enemy moves across the ceasefire boundary.”
The Wa’s southern ally, the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), for the last two weeks, has been busy switching its 369th Brigade in Hsaleu, near the UWSA’s Mongpawk, with the 896th from Mongla. An NDAA officer told SHAN the change was according to its “long laid” plans.
Both Wa and Mongla sources confirmed they had no further meetings with the Burmese Army’s representatives since February 25.
Only the UWSA’s western ally the Shan State Army (SSA) North’s boss Loimao had held the latest meeting with Lashio-based Northeastern Region commander Maj Gen Aung Than Tut on March 9. He was accompanied by Kherh Tai, Sai Awn, Hla Myint and LernZeun. No details of the meeting were disclosed by the media shy group however. But a source close to the group assured SHAN, “Diplomacy will continue.”
With the 2010 elections round the corner, there is a possibility that areas under the control of the armed ceasefire groups that have refused to accept the BGF proposal unconditionally, as demanded by Naypyitaw, may be excluded “for security reasons,” reported Mizzima News, quoting the law on Election Commission, “enacted” by Naypyitaw on March 8.
