In the wake of the Burmese Army capturing the Kokang area, ceasefire groups on the Sino-Burma border have been left wondering on whose side China is on.

“We used to think whatever happened, China’s our friend,” said a middle-aged officer from one of the ceasefire groups located on the Sino-Burma frontier. “After Kokang, I’m not sure.”

Kachin, Kokang, Wa and Mongla have always believed that they, together with Shans, would be collectively treated as a buffer, as North Korea is, to successive Burmese governments’ efforts to establish détente with the west especially the United States.

That was until Kokang, the ethnic Chinese dominant territory of Burma, was not only invaded but badly defeated last month by the Burmese Army that prompted only a few complaints from Beijing.

Many of those questioned by SHAN admitted they “can’t help but feel that we have been let down by the provincial government, if not the central government.”

The following, they say, are the reasons for their suspicions:

• When tensions between Naypyitaw and Kokang mounted forcing people to flee across the border, there were already temporary camps where they could stay complete with mats and blankets (The International Crisis Group meanwhile says Beijing “was not even forewarned”)
• “During the fighting, we heard the Burmese Army had requested that the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) move back a few hundred meters from the boundary,” said an officer, “The PLA just ‘obeyed’.”
• One of the Wa sources said when they went across the common border with Kokang to help defend Qingshuihe against the Burmese Army attack, they were ‘advised’ to wait resulting in the Kokang stronghold’s fall
• The deposed Kokang leader Peng Jiasheng’s assets inside China are also being seized
• Both Panghsang and Mongla were also ‘advised’ to keep their territories off limits not only to Peng and his family but also to anyone associated with his Kokang Army
• Most recently, banks along the border were ordered to set a limit to how much the depositor could withdraw. “One of my friends went to withdraw Ұ100,000 ($14,300) a few days ago,” said an officer, “and he was told the bank first needed to know how he was going to spend that kind of money.”

“This is the last straw,” said an officer. “Now only the Burmese Army can buy as much as it wants without fear of its assets being frozen.”

On the other hand, there has been an increase in the frequency of drug seizures along the Thai-Burma border recently. Interviewed by the Irrawaddy on the latest haul of almost 3 million meth pills on September 11, the Burmese police in Tachilek said the drugs originated in Panghsang. “That’s the damnedest thing I’ve heard in 20 years,” a veteran Thai security officer in Maesai, opposite Tachilek. “In the past, the Burmese officials always immediately came to the Wa’s defence, whenever we leveled our accusations at them.”

These days, according to a businessman in Kengtung, 160 km north of Maesai, the only way to survive and get ahead as a drug entrepreneur is to be “politically correct,” that is, to support the military junta. “From now on, the Wa is not going to be allowed to sell drugs and buy weapons to be used against Naypyitaw.”

The New Light of Myanmar, on Sunday, 13 September, had warned all the ceasefire armies to be ready to transform themselves into Burma Army-controlled border guard forces (BGFs). Kokang was attacked and its 1,500 strong force routed after it turned down the BGF proposal.