The 14 October meeting of National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), the first of its kind since Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) regime comes into power, followed by the 15 October, first anniversary of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) signing occasion has brought back the back burner issues to light, portraying the woes that the country is facing, into a package as a whole, which needs to be resolved earnestly and speedily.

The national defense and security affairs meeting of 14 October that was attended by the President of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, U Htin Kyaw, the State Counselor, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the Commander in Chief of Defense Services, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Deputy Commander in Chief Vice Senior General Soe Win, Union Minister for Ministry of Home Affairs Lt-Gen Kyaw Swe, Union Minister for Ministry of Defense Lt-Gen Sein Win, Union Minister for Office of the State Counselor U Kyaw Tint Swe, touched on the following issues, according to the Presidential website.

    The situations of the battle occurred in Kachin State and the Northern Shan State
    The efforts of Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) which signed the NCA
    The situations which occurred in “Wa” Special Region (1) and “Mailar”(Mong La) Special Region (4)
    The management procedures in order to enhance the capacity and ability of the Myanmar Police Force.

Remarkably, the said meeting didn’t mention the issue of recent Arakan conflict that has already taken place on 9 October.

It is not clear, whether concrete directives or solutions have been made, but seen from the speeches delivered the following 15 October, on the occasion of the first anniversary NCA, the NLD regime and the Tatmadaw don’t seem to have a clear understanding of cooperation, on how to go about with the country’s woes, in a coordinated manner.

Thus, it is necessary to study the speeches delivered at the occasion, as a clue on how each stakeholder is gearing up to go about with overcoming the obstacles.

Aung San Suu Kyi

In her speech, Suu Kyi reiterated her former position of all-inclusiveness and advocate, or one could even say plead, for the culture of altruism in peace-building.

“All inclusiveness is very important to our country. Peace is a treasure which cannot be exchanged for whatsoever thing. Reflecting in the wording NCA, the notion of fire struck my mind,” she emphasized explicitly.

In trying to instill the culture of altruism, she said: “Should we want peace and ceasefire, we had better start with extinguishing of anger and prejudice which are likened to fire burning inside our heart and soul. So, only when all the individuals and organizations involved can subdue their fire-like anger and prejudice, will we be able to achieve the genuine peace.”

Her ultimate message was outlined when she stressed: “We have our own opinion, we can’t deny. But I’m confident we are all able to overcome these bitter experiences. What we ought to compete is who the most forgiving individuals and / or organizations are. We are not to compete in our firing power. We need to vie with one another for our fire-extinguishing power. The whole country is watching us with great expectation.”

Buttressing her plea, laced with urging she said. “Instead of competing with one another in firing power, we’d better vie in fire-fighting power.”

In addition Suu Kyi talked about the seven-point road map to amend the military-drafted constitution, which includes the following:

    To review the political dialogue framework
    To amend the political dialogue framework
    To convene the Union Peace Conference—the 21st century Panglong in accordance with the amended and approved political dialogue framework
    To sign union agreement— the 21st century Panglong Conference Agreement based on the results of the 21st Century Panglong Conference
    To amend the constitution in accordance with the union agreement and approve the amended constitution
    To hold the multi-party democracy general elections in accordance with the amended and approved constitution
    To build a democratic federal union in accordance with the results of the multi-party democracy general elections (Source: Global New Light of Myanmar – 16 October 2016)

Min Aung Hlaing

The Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing’s speech on the NCA first anniversary occasion centered on the concept of the present union being the continuous legacy of immemorial time; urging the EAOs to sign the NCA, give up the armed struggle and make use of the multi-party democracy platform to address their grievances; and acceptance of the military’s six guiding principles to achieve peace.

He said: “Our country is a Union which has been formed since yore (immemorial). Any regions and states in the Union are home to all ethnics, not for a single ethnic specifically.”

To make his point that armed struggle is out of place, he said: “I would like to say the attempts to grasp the opportunities through armed struggle line by turning a blind eye to the actual rights and opportunities is opposition to the people’s desire.”

“Therefore, if we accept democracy, we need to abandon the obsession to the armed struggle line which is the opposition of democracy,” he stressed.

” Ethnic-minority areas where armed groups are based are peaceful and have no more fighting since the groups signed the ceasefire. Mutual trust proves that. So I am urging other armed groups to learn from the example,” Min Aung Hlaing also said, luring the non-signatories to sign the NCA.

The most important message that he put across is the often reiterated military’s controversial six guiding principles to achieve peace, which is the actual stumbling block in the peace process, as far as the EAOs are concerned. They are:

    To have a keen desire to reach eternal peace,
    To keep promises agreed to in peace deals,
    To avoid capitalizing on the peace agreement,
    To avoid placing a heavy burden on local people,
    To strictly abide by the existing laws, and
    To march towards a democratic country in accord with the 2008 Constitution.

Mutu Say Poe

The Karen National Union (KNU) leader Mutu Say Poe is a close confidant of Min Aung Hlaing and is even jokingly depicted by many as a sample pupil of the Tatmadaw’s peace process structure. Now even he was forced to protest the Tatmadaw’s heavy-handedness on the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), as it begins to directly attack the NCA signatory the RCSS and the KNU indirectly.  The Karen Border Guard Force (KBGF), which is jointly commanded by the Tatmadaw conducted offensives against the splinter group of Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), intruding into the KNU controlled area of Hat Gyi, where a dam is scheduled to be built by the government.

The KNU and RCSS are two core EAOs, from a total of eight EAO signatories of the NCA, that have thousands of troops, while the others only have token armed forces with only few soldiers, except for the DKBA.

Mutu outlined his plea in his recent speech during the NCA anniversary as below.

    It is necessary to avoid the use of force in our attempts to adopt and exercise the new political culture of the NCA and in finding political solutions through political means.
    For instance, it is necessary to stop the ongoing armed conflicts in northern Myanmar.
    Although incidents are understandable, intentional attacks are not acceptable. Leaders from both sides are responsible to reach an agreement on interpretation of the NCA.
    Therefore, on behalf of NCA signatories, I would like to call for the government and the Tatmadaw with all seriousness to ease policies and suspend the use of force in order to pave way for non-signatories to sign the NCA.

United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC)

The UNFC, an alliance of seven ethnic armies, that is the non-signatory of the NCA didn’t attend the occasion even though it was invited. But immediately after the NCA anniversary occasion, the government’s Peace Council (PC), headed by Dr Tin Myo Win, and the UNFC’s Delegation for Peace Negotiation (DPN), led by Khu Oo Reh met in the afternoon.

After a few hours of meeting the DPN’s joint-secretary Tun Zaw was interviewed by the BBC, in which he said that the talks were about accommodation of the UNFC’s eight point proposal that was already handed in to the government a few weeks ago. Accordingly, if the said points could be negotiated satisfactorily, another point of signing the NCA would be included, making the eight point proposal to become a nine point agreement.

The UNFC proposal centers around all-inclusiveness, unilateral or bilateral ceasefire and a tripartite dialogue proposal to make each level of the peace negotiation to be fair and equitable.

However, Tun Zaw said that the important point discussed was said to be on how Ceasefire Joint Monitoring Committee (JMC) should be empowered to make it workable.

The DPN was said to proposed that the role of international participation in the mechanism of JMC implementation and enforcement, so that positive achievement could be evaluated, as the recent self-employed peace keeping structure, given the inability to end the  some seven decades old ethnic conflict  and not producing satisfactory result and achievement.

The idea was said to be met with cold shoulder from the part of the military and meeting ended without any resolution, with an understanding to meet again to resolve the remaining issues between the two parties in the coming November.

Reportedly, four out of eight point proposal was said to be resolved, although both sides did not spell them out.

The Rohingya conflict

Another issue that has thrust forcefully into the political scene is the Rohingya conflict, equally alarming if not more than the ongoing EAOs and Tatmadaw (Burma Army) conflict.

On October 9, around 400 militants in a coordinated action targeted three Burma border posts along the border with Bangladesh and killed around nine soldiers.

The President’s office has also released an official statement detailing information obtained through interrogation of apprehended suspects, as well as apparent intelligence sources.

However, the Burma Human Rights Network (BHRN), based in London, on 17 October, refuted the statement of Burma President’s office described a well organized armed group called Aqa Mul Mujahadeen, whom they said were funded by middle eastern sources and connected to proscribed terrorist groups.

The BHRN questioned the validity of this uprising being a well-planned military operation, as its statement said: “ If the men in the video are assumed to be responsible it should also be noted that they depict only a few dozen adult men with assault rifles and that the vast majority seen in the videos are children armed with swords, sticks and farming tools. This again draws questions into any accounts describing the group as well organized, well funded or well trained.”

Whatever the regime likes to portray the situation, the recent violence outburst of the Rohingya is the product of the successive military governments side-lining and oppressing of said ethnic group. There might be some elements that have received training somewhere abroad. But according to available data, it seems to be more of a home-grown rebellion due to the injustice and oppression, rather than a well-planned military operation, involving only rebel combatants.

According to the New Delhi based The Wire, “After this major border incident, Bangladesh had moved swiftly and arrested two of the attackers and handed them over to Myanmar.”

Accordingly on 16 October, Dhaka “unequivocally” condemned the attack and promised to help track down the perpetrators. “Bangladesh follows a ‘zero tolerance’ policy towards violent extremism and terrorism of any form and manifestation,” said a statement issued by Bangladesh foreign ministry.

Outlook

Taking cues from the events that have been unfolding, assessment on stakeholders’ political stance; the government and military policy in dealing with the EAOs; and the government’s handling of the Arakan conflict involving the Rohingya’s spontaneous rebellion or armed outburst would be in order.

First let us look at the issue of the stakeholders political positions in relation to the contemporary political happenings.

Suu Kyi could be said to have reiterated her previous commitment of all-inclusiveness and genuine ceasefire achievement, although she is powerless to rein in the military to stop its offensives in Kachin, Shan and Karen States, excluding Arakan State, where the government seems to be working in tandem with the military on the recent Rohingya uprising.

While the military is trying to project its image that the offensives in the Kachin, Shan and Karen States are with the blessing of the government, Suu Kyi’s recent speech indicated that it might not be the case. Because her clear urging that the conflict and warring parties should compete more in extinguishing the flames of war and not firing power or escalating the conflict showed that she couldn’t have agreed to the heightening of armed conflict that the military has decided to implement. And clearly, especially the offensives in Kachin and Shan States are the handiwork of the military and not an accidental armed engagement, while patrolling. Apart from that, the conflict in Karen State between the KBFG and the splinter group of DKBA unfolded as an intentional encroachment of the KNU territory, which is against the NCA.

It should also be noted that the RCSS and the KNU are signatories of the NCA.The Commander-in-Chief has clearly indicated that it is not going to abdicate from the military’s self-employed national savior role and protector of the multi-party democracy, sovereignty and national unity, even though this image projection of the military is highly debatable and controversial.

Its mentioning, as if it is part of the multi-party democratic system is deplorable, as the military occupied twenty-five percent of the MP seats in all parliaments without election; having a bigger say in NDSC that is existing parallel with the government, where no such structure is allowed in a real democratic system of governance; and also the parallel military court together with the country’s judicial system. As such, the Commander-in-Chief taking cover and leaning on the elected civilian government to blast at the EAOs has no bearings and moral weight, so to speak.

Finally, justifying the military’s offensives in the name of protecting the ethnic population is an undue credit accumulation, as all know that how much human rights violations have the military committed on the population during these years of war in ethnic states. One only needs to go through tons of documentation compiled by the UN and reputable rights organizations. Besides, even a child knows that opening war front on the EAOs is not conducive to the peace process and trust-building and could even be seen as sabotaging the deliberation that otherwise might lead to peace.

As for KNU leader Mutu Say Poe, it has made a plea that the military allowed all-inclusive participation of all EAOs and to stop the military offensives nationwide. But whether his plea would be heard and implemented is totally another question.

The UNFC has not budged from its demand for either unilateral or bilateral ceasefire to be in place first, coupled with an eight point proposal to amend the NCA, if it were to sign it, according to the government and military wishes. But it has made clear that military pressure on the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), with the extension of all the UNFC members, would be counter-productive as a means of pressure to sign the NCA and would be met with only stiff resistance.

In sum, the government and the military positions in Kachin, Shan and Karen States seem to differ, as the military is bent on “negotiated surrender” stance, while the NLD is for all-inclusiveness and negotiated settlement. And this seemingly uncoordinated strategy is not leading the country to peaceful settlement and successful political outcome.

Still no one is quite sure whether the NLD government and the military are doing things in cooperation or the government just being dragged into a mum or tight-lipped situation and has to act as if it is agreeing to what the military has been doing in ethnic states, with the exception of the Arakan State on Rohingya issue.

Regarding the Rohingya rebellion situation, the military and the government seems to be on the same page so far.

The violent protest, with no doubt,  stems from the building up of the tension all through theses years that has finally exploded.  The 1982 citizenship law of General Ne Win era, that have stripped all the Rohingya of their citizenship and eventually lumped all the Muslims with origin from Bangladesh into an illegal immigrant category, might be the main culprit.

While Islamophobia and xenophobia definitely might be playing important roles in this racial and ethnic conflict, it is simply not correct not to differentiate those who are entitled to be citizens and those who enter the country illegally, after the independence from the British in 1948.

The angst of over foreignization or xenophobia is understandable, especially for the Arakanese. But lumping the whole ethnic group, legal and illegal, into inhumane treatment of illegality might not also be correct and could even become an act of racial discrimination, leading to racism.

As such a new set of conceptual thinking which could accommodate the liberal democratic principles and preserving the ethnic identity of the indigenous Arakanese must be found. All know that assuming the policy line of Ne Win’s side-lining and oppression would only breed animosity and rebellion, as is evident by the recent violent outburst. It might even be considered as an  act of despair and disappointment.

In a concrete term, filtering out the illegal immigrants with the cooperation of the neighboring country and reinstating the citizenship rights of those who are entitled is the only way to go. As to how this could be achieve would be entirely up to the government and stakeholders concerned, including those at the receiving end, depending on their creativity, degree of harmony aspirations of peaceful co-existence and innovation.

To conclude, unless the military could make an about turn from its “negotiated surrender” stance and top-dog, preconceived posture, the war with the EAOs won’t end and the peace process would remain a pipe-dream. The same goes for the resolution of Rohingya issue, so long as only side-lining and oppression is used and not humane accommodation.