In what seems to be tactics to divert attention, the Burmese Army has been deploying and redeploying troops and armour in Kachin State, Shan State North and Shan State East, but its next target after Kokang is so far anybody’s guess.

In northern Shan State, one tactical command of the Sagaing-based Light Infantry Division No. 33, deployed in Kokang last month, has been ordered to move to Kachin State further north, according to a border source. A tactical command from the Kalaw-based LID No. 55 is due to replace it. (One tactical command comprises three infantry battalions)

In eastern Shan State, more troops and heavy weapons are arriving in Mongkhark and Monyang, facing the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and its southeastern ally the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA).

However, a representative from Naypyitaw, Col Kyaw Kyaw, who used to be commander of the Infantry Battalion No. 279 based in Mongyang, told the local people on September 4, “There is no way the government is going to attack either the Wa or Mongla.” He therefore urged the people to recall their relatives who have fled the area.

“Which is contrary to exhortations by local TV channels in neighbouring Yunnan to all Chinese nationals working on the Burmese side of the border to return to their homeland for their safety and welfare,” said a source close to the Mongla authorities.

On the Thai-Burma border, a Lahu militia source claimed yesterday that his unit was instructed to do everything it could to provoke the Wa soldiers to shoot first. “My boss told me that the idea is for the Burmese Army to have an excuse to attack the Wa, as it did in Kokang,” he explained.

Areas of the Kokang, a ceasefire group north of Wa, were overrun three days after an advancing police column was fired upon by the defenders on  August 27.

The Burmese Army has also reinforced its troops at Namzarm, the village east of Monghsat, where the road branches off to the Wa strongholds in Mongyawn, opposite Thailand’s Mae Ai district. “There used to be only the LIB (Light Infantry Battalion) 333,” said a local. “But now we are seeing at least 200 more troops, with 10 armoured cars.”

West of the Salween in southern Shan State, all units have been ordered to requisition both civilian trucks and porters and be ready to move in 24 hours. “Even in Taunggyi and Kalaw, where requisition of trucks and porters were unheard of in the past, are not being spared,” a local source said “Each unit has to have at least 10 trucks and 100 porters at its disposal.”

Bewildered, many people are consulting local spirits through known mediums, he added.

Shan State Army leader Sao Yawdserk has predicted that Naypyitaw’s next target would be Mongla, followed by Kachin, Wa and then the SSA.

“The Burmese Army is in a high state of readiness,” commented a Thai security official. “What it needs is a good excuse (to attack the ceasefire groups).”