Following the rejection of the junta’s proposal to transform into border security force by almost all the ceasefire groups, the regime is preparing to break the groups militarily, especially the United Wa State Army (UWSA), according to SHAN sources.
However, eliminating the United Wa State Army (UWSA) is easier said than done, says a veteran border watcher.
“It is not easy for the Burmese Army to break the Wa even though they [junta] possess heavy weaponry,” he said. “For one thing, the Wa could join hands with the Shan State Army (SSA) ‘South’. Then the war would not be over in a short time,” he added.
According to him, there are many reasons why the Burmese Army is unlikely to score an easy victory over the Wa:
- In combat, a Burmese Army infantry battalion has only 156 soldiers
- More officers than men, for example, the Defense Service Academy (DSA) alone produces 3,000 each year
- There are no effective proxies to fight against the Wa in Shan State like the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) against the Karen National Union (KNU) in Karen State
- Inadequate food and supplies for its soldiers
- Since 1989, the Tatmadaw has become a fund raising force instead of being a fighting force
A latest report says two tactical operations commands (TOCs) from the Light Infantry Divisions (LID) No. 66 and 77 both based in Pegu division are due to arrive in July in Mongton and Monghsat townships, opposite Chiangmai province, a local source said.
Earlier this month, the Kalaw based LID No. 55 was reported to be moving to Piangkham, Monghsat Township, opposite Chiangmai’s Mae Ai district. But now it is likely to be despatched to Mongyang and Mongkhark areas surrounding the northern Wa territory on the Sino-Burma border.
