New Delhi (Mizzima) - As a step forward along the roadmap to democracy, Burma's military junta will soon announce an Election Law that will set guidelines and criteria for the formation of political parties to contest the upcoming 2010 general election, sources said.
According to Larry Jagan, a journalist based in Bangkok and a Burma affairs expert, the junta is likely to announce the Election Law in early January 2009 and most likely on Burma's Independence Day of January 4th.
Burma's military government had previously announced early this year that it wiould hold a general election in 2010 to elect representatives to a new government which is to include some civilian representatives.
In preparation for the election, sources close to the military said the junta has already prepared a set of rules and regulations for the formation of political parties, the document now pending to be made public as the country's paramount military figure, Senior General Than Shwe, is yet to have given his final approval.
"According to what I know [from my sources] the election law will be announced on January 4th," Jagan, a veteran journalist who has covered Burma for years, told Mizzima.
A source, who wished to remain unnamed, said the junta is likely to make public the Law in late December or early January, but in any scenario it is clear that the junta will only make such an announcement when it is confident they have done all the necessary groundwork to secure electoral victory.
Analysts, including Jagan, believe that the junta, making use of an Election Law, will ensure that it gets an upper hand in the upcoming election and will tie up any possible opposition at the polling booths, including that led of detained Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's party – National League for Democracy (NLD).
"It is likely that the NLD will be allowed to partake, if they are willing to contest by the established rules, but that does not mean there would be a free and fair process," said Jagan, adding that the junta will make sure the party is left handicapped.
The NLD, on its part, has so far not reached any decision on whether or not to contest the upcoming election.
"We will decide on it, but as of now we still think it is too early," Nyan Win, the NLD's spokesperson in Rangoon, told Mizzima. He said the NLD would love to see progress in the electoral process, including the announcement of the Election Law, so that an accurate assessment of the NLD's potential involvement could be formulated.
However, according to some, regardless of specifics it would be unwise for the NLD to remain out of the fold, encouraging the party to contest the poll.
Aye Lwin, leader of the 88 generation students (Union of Myanmar), a group backed by the junta, during an interview with Mizzima said it would be wiser for the NLD and other opposition elements to join the election process and accept a new government as a step forward to democratization.
"Democracy cannot be achieved overnight, so we have to build it slowly from the given the space," Aye Lwin said.
Aye Lwin admits that he and his group are now campaigning and intend to form a political party to contest the election, saying he believes that the election will be free and fair and that the result will bring Burma a step closer to democracy.
But unlike Aye Lwin, Jagan said the junta's priority is not to allow a repetition of the 1990 election, in which detained democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi led the NLD to a landslide victory.
"The NLD might be allowed to run in the election but it does not necessarily mean it is free and fair. It is more likely that they would be harassed and hindered, and the junta would likely arrest those they thought were problems," Jagan elaborated.
