After what was perceived by some peace process observers as a leap in the direction of reconciliation, future discourse between the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and the Myanmar government is on now on hold. Senior KIO officials have expressed uncertainty in arranging the next round of peace talks to discuss measures to quell violence in Northern Kachin State and eastern Shan state.
After talks between the Myanmar government and the KIO in Ruili, China, on Feb. 4, there was hope that the 17-month long conflict could be resolved. Following the peace talks, tentative arrangements were made to facilitate further dialogue between the two sides with the objective of reaching a peace agreement. During the Ruili meeting both sides agreed to strengthen communications, ease tensions, and hold further talks before the end of February.
The subsequent rounds of talks, which were tentatively scheduled for late February, are now expected to take place in March, although the exact date has not yet been determined.
Hesitation in scheduling a definitive date is largely due to the KIO’s reluctance to hold talks within Myanmar. KIO representatives have stated neutral ground would be a better venue for brokering discussions. Government officials would like the talks on Myanmar soil.
A major area of contention in the negotiations is the government's refusal to recognize the 1947 Panglong Agreement signed between General Aung San and ethnic leaders, including the Kachin, that granted Burma's ethnic minorities partial autonomy.
Yet, it is the Myanmar military's refusal to withdraw troops from territories recently captured during the fighting that is the main sore spot in the peace dealings. Military forces have failed to reduce their presence along the front line, leaving many Kachin with the suspicion that despite reduced fighting in conflict areas, an offensive attack on the KIO may be imminent.
Such suspicions were confirmed on Feb. 24, when military trucks were used in eastern Kachin state to send arms, food, and supplies to troops stationed near Loije - a region close to the KIO occupied town of Mai Ja Yang. Supplies were also sent to reinforce positions in the recently (military) captured La Ja Yang area, which borders the KIO de facto capital of Laiza.
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) - the KIO’s affiliate army - exchanged fire with army units from Infantry Battalion 200 the following day in Pannwar region. According to reports, 8 Myanmar military soldiers were killed, 2 of which were lieutenants.
Fighting with ethnic armed groups in other states in the country still persists despite the fact that ceasefires have been inked with the government. The Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) and the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA) recently appealed to President Thein Sein to resolve ongoing conflicts with the Myanmar military. The latest clashes between the SSPP/SSA and government took place last month after the Myanmar military demanded they withdraw from their Loi Lang base in Tangyang Township, Shan state.
Fresh fighting between the RCSS/SSA and Myanmar military broke out on Feb. 24 near Kholam in southern Shan state. According to a report in the Shan Herald News Agency, locals fear the fighting will escalate as the Burmese army continues to reinforce the area with fresh troops.
Although informal discussions between the KIO and the Myanmar government have taken place in recent weeks further negotiations are necessary to end the fighting. Recently, government representatives met with senior KIO officials and the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) - an alliance of Myanmar's armed ethnic groups that includes the KIO - in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai. During the meeting neither side were able to confirm a new date for the next rounds of peace talks.
