The Junta is ramping up for a counteroffensive in Myanmar's southern region in Mon State, which comprises both Mon and Karen armed resistance groups.

Since May 21, the Junta has intensified deployment of fighter jets, helicopters, and reconnaissance aircraft in the Karen National Union (KNU)-controlled area of Thaton District.

Ko Aye Min Tun, an officer of the People's Defense Force - Thaton District (PDF-Thaton) remarked that the Junta's reconnaissance aircraft have been conducting daily flights recently, indicating a high likelihood of the Junta initiating a large-scale offensive through airstrikes.

"Recently we have noticed an increase in the Junta's aircraft reconnaissance activities. While we are uncertain about their ground operations. At the same time our allied resistance forces are fully prepared for any eventualities”, he said.

Junta troops have been shelling Kyaikhto, Bilin, and Thaton townships within KNU-Thaton District the Junta has intensified the deployment of fighter jets, helicopters, and reconnaissance aircraft almost everyday leading to civilian casualties.

Records compiled by Than Lwin Times indicate that Junta shelling in May resulted in the confirmed deaths of 4 civilians and at least 22 wounded in Thaton District.

Starting from early May, the Junta has notably increased night-time reconnaissance flights over Mudon, Mawlamyine, and Thanbyuzayat townships.

Nai Naga, spokesperson for the Mon State Revolution Force (MSRF), suggested that the heightened activity of the Junta's aircraft in the region could indicate preparations for area clearance operations or scouting resistance encampments for potential airstrikes.

"The Junta had plans to start clearing areas since October, but it has not happened yet. Now it is building up military forces, even adding more artillery. The increased reconnaissance flights could mean the Junta troops are getting ready for the area clearance operations, or maybe they are thinking of using helicopters to drop troops behind our camps and attack us”, he told Than Lwin Times.

Since April, the Junta has been transporting howitzers to Mon State and deploying 120 mm artillery guns. Troops already fatigued from battles in the northern regions of the country have also been redeployed to Ye and Thanbyuzayat townships to bolster existing forces.

Nai Naga pointed out that the increased troop presence and intensified nightly reconnaissance flights, suggest that the Junta is gearing up to launch a counteroffensive in Mon State.

Following the Three Brotherhood Alliance's extensive 'Operation 1027' in northern Shan State last year, the Junta had postponed its plans for a counter-offensive in Mon State.

At present, the Junta is confronted with relentless attacks from ethnic armed groups and resistance forces spanning the country, including Rakhine State, Kachin State, and Tanintharyi Region.

This could explain why the Junta has notably increased shelling and reconnaissance flights in Mon State, possibly as a preemptive response to the potential escalation of military operations by the resistance forces, who currently hold sway over much of the territories in the region.